Forecast shows Missouri River runoff returning to more normal levels after below-average 2025

Courtesy Photo | Missouri River Monthly update shows 2025 runoff total was 19.9 million acre feet or 78% of average. The January forecast for 2026 runoff indicates 24.5 million acre feet or 96% of average. Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam are at a minimum of 12,000 cubic feet per second and the forecast Navigation Flow Support for 2026 is 5200 cubic feet per second below full service. Flow support season begins April 1 at the mouth of the Missouri River in St. Louis.  

OMAHA, NEBRASKA, UNITED STATES

01.08.2026

Story by Eileen Williamson 

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division

For the 2025 calendar year, Missouri River basin runoff above Sioux City, Iowa totaled 19.9 million acre-feet, 78% of average. For 2026, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is forecasting runoff in the Missouri River basin above Sioux City, Iowa to be near- average at 24.5 MAF, 96% of average.

The 2026 forecast is based on current runoff trends, soil moisture conditions, generally below-average plains snowpack and near-average mountain snowpack. At the start of the 2026 runoff season, which typically begins around March 1, the total volume of water stored in the Missouri River Mainstem reservoir system is expected to be 49.0 MAF, 7.1 MAF below the top of the carryover multiple use zone. The System is designed to use the water contained within the carryover multiple use zone to support the eight Congressionally authorized purposes during extended droughts. Those purposes are flood control, navigation, water supply, irrigation, hydropower, recreation, water quality control, and fish and wildlife.

Releases from Gavins Point Dam were decreased to the target winter release rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Dec. 15. Releases are scheduled to be maintained at the 12,000 cfs winter release rate unless colder weather and ice formation on the river requires an increase in release. "Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam will remain low during January and February in order to conserve water in the System, based on the guidance in the Missouri River Mainstem System Master Manual,” said John Remus, Chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

There is enough water in the river for all water supply needs. Access to the water remains the responsibility of the facility owners and operators. “Weather and river conditions continue to be monitored and releases from Gavins Point Dam will be adjusted to the extent practical to help mitigate any negative effects of the cold weather. We know the importance of our operations to water supply,” added Remus.

Navigation: Navigation flow support for the Missouri River is forecast to be 5,200 cfs below full service for the first half of the 2026 season, which begins April 1 at the mouth of the river near St. Louis, Missouri. The actual service level will be based on the total volume of water stored within the System on March 15, in accordance with the guidelines in the Master Manual. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season, as well as navigation season length, will be based on the storage in the System on July 1.

Mountain and Plains Snowpack: Mountain snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is accumulating at average rates. As of Jan. 4, mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck reach was 99% of average, while the mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach was 100% of average. More than half the mountain snowfall typically occurs from Jan. 1 to mid-April and normally peaks near April 17. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed at: https://go.mil/mr-mtn-snowpack. While there are some small areas of above average plains snowpack, the plains snowpack is generally below average for this time of year.

Fort Peck Flow Test: Test releases from Fort Peck that would assess the potential benefits of alternative management scenarios for the pallid sturgeon had been planned to be implemented in 2026. The test would include two higher Fort Peck release periods, in late April and June, with target flows at Wolf Point, Montana. While the Corps continues the planning process for a 2026 Fort Peck Flow Test, current reservoir studies indicate there will not be a sufficient volume of water in the Fort Peck Reservoir to conduct the test in 2026.

Final 2025-2026 Annual Operating Plan Released: The final Annual Operating Plan for the Missouri River Basin for 2025–2026 has been posted at https://go.mil/mr-reports.

Monthly Water Management Conference Calls Begin for 2026: The first 2026 monthly conference call will be held Thursday, Jan. 8, to inform basin stakeholders of current weather and runoff forecasts and the planned operation of the reservoir system in the coming months. Presentation materials will be available via webinar. The call is intended for Congressional delegations, Tribes, state, county and local government officials, and the media. Calls are recorded in their entirety and made available to the public on our website at: https://go.mil/mr-news.

Reservoir Forecasts: Gavins Point Dam

• Average releases past month – 12,800 cfs
• Current release rate – 12,000 cfs
• Forecast release rate – 12,500 cfs
• End-of-December reservoir level – 1207.4 feet
• Forecast end-of-January reservoir level – 1207.5 feet
• Notes: The winter release rate will be at least 12,000 cfs and may be adjusted to lessen the impacts of ice formation.

Fort Randall Dam

• Average releases past month – 10,000 cfs
• End-of-December reservoir level – 1339.7 feet
• Forecast end-of-January reservoir level – 1344.8 feet
• Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point. The reservoir was drawn down to 1337.5 feet near the end of November 2025 to provide space for winter hydropower generation at Oahe and Big Bend. The reservoir will refill to the base of the flood control pool by the end of February.

Big Bend Dam

• Average releases past month –12,000 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 15,400 cfs
• Forecast reservoir level – 1420.7 feet

Oahe Dam

• Average releases past month – 12,000 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 15,300 cfs
• End-of-December reservoir level – 1600.8 feet
• Forecast end-of-January reservoir level – 1600.9 feet

Garrison Dam

• Average releases past month – 15,600 cfs
• Current release rate – 16,000 cfs
• Forecast release rate – 16,000 cfs
• End-of-December reservoir level – 1829.2 feet
• Forecast end-of-January reservoir level – 1827.8 feet
• Notes – Releases were set at 16,000 cfs in early December, prior to the river freeze-in at Bismarck, North Dakota. Releases may be adjusted to lessen the impacts of ice formation.

Fort Peck Dam

• Average releases past month – 5,000 cfs
• Current release rate – 5,000 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 5,000 cfs
• End-of-December reservoir level – 2222,7 feet
• Forecast end-of-January reservoir level – 2221.6 feet
• Notes: Releases will remain at 5,000 cfs in January and February. The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower: The six mainstem power plants generated 435 million kWh of electricity in December. Typical energy generation for December is 670 million kWh. Total energy generation for 2025 was 7.7 billion kWh of electricity, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh. Forecast generation for 2026 is 8.0 billion kWh. To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to: https://go.mil/mr-3wk-fcast.

• Date Taken: 01.08.2026
• Date Posted: 01.08.2026 12:12
• Story ID: 555865
• Location: OMAHA, NEBRASKA, US