Dry outlook persists for Missouri River despite early spring runoff; Navigation support to begin mid-March

Photo By Eileen Williamson | Warm February temperatures triggered early snowmelt and runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, but the overall 2026 runoff forecast remains well below average. February runoff was 1.3 million acre-feet, 113% of average. Despite this above average runoff in the Garrison, Oahe, and Gavins Point reaches, the full-year runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa is 20.6 MAF, 80% of average.  

OMAHA, NEBRASKA, UNITED STATES

03.05.2026

Story by Eileen Williamson 

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division

OMAHA, Neb. – Warm February temperatures triggered early snowmelt and runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, but the overall 2026 runoff forecast remains well below average.

February runoff was 1.3 million acre-feet, 113% of average. Despite this above average runoff in the Garrison, Oahe, and Gavins Point reaches, the full-year runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa is 20.6 MAF, 80% of average.

“Runoff into the reservoir system was slightly above average for the month of February, but conditions across most of the basin remain dry,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “The much warmer-than-normal temperatures led to an early melt of the lower-than-average plains snow. In addition, mountain snowpack, though it improved in February, is still below average and soil moisture remains low due to ongoing drought.”

Water stored in the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System is currently 49.3 MAF, which is 6.8 MAF below the base of the flood control zone.

“While lower reservoir storage helps to decrease the chances of systemic flooding, continued water conservation measures will be required,” said Remus.

Releases from Gavins Point Dam are currently 12,000 cubic-feet-per-second and will remain low through mid-March to continue conserving water in the System following the Missouri River Mainstem System Master Manual’s criteria.

“While the target winter release from Gavins Point Dam is 12,000 cfs, releases were set at 14,000 cfs from mid-January through the first week of February due to extremely cold temperatures and ice conditions on the Missouri River below Gavins Point,” said Remus.

USACE continues to monitor basin and river conditions, including plains and mountain snow accumulation, and will adjust System regulation based on the most up-to-date information.

Navigation Flow Support: Beginning in mid-March, releases from Gavins Point Dam will be adjusted to provide flow support for Missouri River navigation. Flow support is expected to be 5,500 cfs below full-service for the first half of the 2026 season, which begins April 1 at the mouth of the river near St. Louis. The actual service level will be based on the total volume of water stored in the System on March 15. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season, as well as season length, will be based on System storage on July 1.

Mountain Snowpack: Mountain snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is accumulating at below average rates. On March 1, mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck reach was 79% of average, and in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach, it was 85% of average. Mountain snow normally peaks near April 17 and has reached about 79% of the total accumulation by March 1. Mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed at: https://www.go.mil/mr-mtn-snowpack.

Monthly Water Management Conference Calls: The monthly conference call for March 2026 will be held Thursday, March 5 at 1 p.m. CST to inform basin stakeholders of current weather, runoff forecasts, and plans for operating the reservoir system in the coming months. Materials presented during the webinar are updated the by noon the day of the call and available at: https://go.mil/mr-monthly-slides. The call is intended for Congressional delegations; Tribes; state, county and local government officials; and the media. It is recorded in its entirety and made available to the public on our website at: https://www.go.mil/mr-news.

In-Person Water Management Meetings: In-person meetings are being planned. One meeting in the upper basin will be held in Bismarck, North Dakota the week of April 23. The date, time and venue are being finalized. Multiple meetings in the lower basin will be held the week of April 6; dates, times and venues are being finalized. Once meeting details are finalized, an additional press release will be issued.

Reservoir Forecasts: Gavins Point Dam

• Average releases past month – 12,400 cfs
• Current release rate – 12,000 cfs
• Forecast release rate – 25,800 cfs
• End-of-February reservoir level – 1206.5 feet
• Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1206.0 feet
• Notes: The Gavins Point release will be increased around March 17 to begin providing minimum service navigation flow support on the lower Missouri River.

Fort Randall Dam

• Average releases past month – 9,000 cfs
• End-of-February reservoir level – 1349.7 feet
• Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1354.7 feet
• Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point and to back up the Gavins Point release increases. The reservoir will refill to near elevation 1355.0 feet by the end of March.

Big Bend Dam

• Average releases past month – 15,200 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 21,700 cfs
• Forecast reservoir level – 1420.8 feet

Oahe Dam

• Average releases past month – 15,200 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 21,900 cfs
• End-of-February reservoir level – 1601.9 feet
• Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1601.7 feet

Garrison Dam

• Average releases past month – 15,700 cfs
• Current release rate – 16,000 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 16,000 cfs
• End-of-February reservoir level – 1827.5 feet
• Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 1826.4 feet
• Notes – Releases will be maintained at 16,000 cfs during the month of March.

Fort Peck Dam

• Average releases past month – 4,900 cfs
• Current release rate – 5,000 cfs
• Forecast average release rate – 5,000 cfs
• End-of-February reservoir level – 2222.0 feet
• Forecast end-of-March reservoir level – 2222.0 feet
• Notes: Releases will be maintained at 5,000 cfs in March.

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower: The six mainstem power plants generated 425 million kWh of electricity in February, below the typical February energy generation of 614 million kWh. Forecast generation for 2026 is 7.8 billion kWh compared to the long-term average of 9.3 billion kWh. To detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams is available at: https://go.mil/mr-3wk-fcast.

This information and more is available in our web-app, https://go.mil/mr-webapp, which can be saved to your smart phone’s home screen.

• Date Taken: 03.05.2026
• Date Posted: 03.05.2026 17:34
• Story ID: 559499
• Location: OMAHA, NEBRASKA, US