Photo By Master Sgt. Ryan Campbell | Armaghan Abed-Elmdoust, a hydraulic engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,...... read more read more
(BUFFALO, N.Y.) — Along the southern shore of Lake Ontario, water levels are a visible reminder that the Great Lakes are constantly changing and that those changes are becoming more pronounced, as noticed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
In recent years, communities around Lake Ontario have experienced both extremely high and extremely low water levels. Scientists expect that variability to continue as the Great Lakes region faces uncertainty in yearly conditions driven by changes in weather.
Together, these factors influence how water enters, moves through and exits the lake system.
“We monitor water levels to understand how Lake Ontario is changing over time and to help people prepare for impacts like flooding, erosion and low-water problems,” said Dr. Armaghan Abed-Elmdoust, a hydraulic engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District.
“Knowing current and past water levels helps communities protect homes and infrastructure, manage drinking water and shipping, and make informed decisions about shoreline development and emergency response,” she said.
Understanding how Lake Ontario’s water levels may change in the future is critical for the region. Large swings in water levels can affect coastal ecosystems, accelerate shoreline erosion, stress infrastructure, and disrupt recreation, navigation, and local economies.
This is part of the effort of the Army Civil Works program, which focuses USACE on its core mission areas of commercial navigation, flood and storm damage reduction, aquatic ecosystem restoration and hydropower.
“In recent decades, Lake Ontario has experienced greater variability, meaning water levels swing more dramatically between high and low periods,” Abed-Elmdoust said. “There have been several record or near-record high water levels in recent years, along with periods of unusually low levels.”
What effects water levels?
Several factors influence Lake Ontario’s water levels:
Precipitation (rain and snow) falling directly on the lake and across the upstream watershed.
Runoff from rivers flowing into the lake.
Evaporation, which depends on lake and air temperatures, ice cover and wind.
Outflows, through the St. Lawrence River.
Abed-Elmdoust said that rather than water levels staying within a predictable range, the lake is showing more frequent and more extreme changes.
“Armaghan’s hydrologic engineering analyses provide the predictive insights necessary for communities to defend against highly variable water levels of Lake Ontario, directly contributing to the region’s long-term security and resilience,” said Paul Cocca, chief of the USACE Buffalo District’s Water Management Section.
“By translating complex hydrometeorological data into clear, actionable guidance, Dr. Abed-Elmdoust’s analysis is fundamental to protecting Great Lakes coastal infrastructure and safeguarding the economic vitality of shoreline communities,” he continued.
Preparing for these conditions requires both scientific insight and long-term planning.
To support that preparation, USACE and its binational partners use advanced modeling tools to evaluate how future conditions could affect Lake Ontario. One such tool is the Great Lakes Regulation and Routing Model (GLRRM), a comprehensive system that simulates how precipitation, temperature, runoff and regulation interact to influence lake levels.
“Water levels are monitored using a network of water level gauges placed around the lake and along connecting rivers,” Abed-Elmdoust said. “These gauges continuously measure how high the water is and send the data to scientists and agencies.”
She also explained that in addition to gauges, satellites and weather observations (rainfall, snowpack, evaporation), computer models also help to provide a fuller picture of what’s happening across the entire lake system.
“Armaghan’s modeling brings to light the hard physical constraints of the St. Lawrence River itself. The river’s channel can only safely handle a certain volume of water, creating a bottleneck that severely limits how quickly levels on Lake Ontario can be lowered,” Cocca said.
“This reality makes it clear that regulation alone cannot address high water events and must be complemented by shoreline and other mitigation strategies.”
An updated version of the GLRRM incorporates a simplified representation of operational deviations from Plan 2014, the binational regulation plan governing Lake Ontario outflows.
What can we do in response to changing water levels?
Communities and governments can:
Improve shoreline planning and zoning to reduce flood and erosion risks.
Invest in resilient infrastructure such as reinforced shorelines and flood-proof utilities.
In the future, we can use forecasting and early warning systems to prepare for extreme water levels.
Adapt management strategies for shipping, hydropower, ecosystems and recreation.
At an individual level, shoreline property owners can take steps to reduce erosion and flood damage, and stay informed about lake conditions.
Scenario modeling plays a key role in this work. By exploring a range of possible future precipitation and temperature conditions, scientists and decision-makers can better understand how different water-level outcomes may affect communities and coastal resources.
These scenarios help inform planning decisions related to infrastructure, shoreline protection, habitat management and emergency preparedness.
The research supports sustainable water management and coastal resiliency by providing communities with actionable information to anticipate and adapt to change. Rather than predicting a single outcome, the modeling highlights the range of conditions Lake Ontario may experience, helping stakeholders prepare for both high and low water extremes.
This work is conducted through close coordination between the United States and Canada, sharing the responsibility of managing a lake that crosses international boundaries. The binationally coordinated regulation and routing model produces water-level change scenarios that support long term resiliency planning for Lake Ontario’s coastal communities.
What kind of impact can changing water levels have?
Changing water levels can affect:
Shorelines, causing flooding, erosion and property damage during high-water periods and exposing the lake bottom during low-water periods.
Ecosystems, by altering wetlands and fish habitats.
Shipping and boating, which can be disrupted by both high and low water.
Water quality, including sediment movement and nutrient levels.
Local economies, especially those dependent on waterfront tourism, recreation and infrastructure.
As water levels continue to fluctuate, officials emphasize that preparation and collaboration remain essential. By understanding the forces driving lake-level variability and planning accordingly, communities can better position themselves to adapt to changes in the Great Lakes.
| Date Taken: | 03.12.2026 |
| Date Posted: | 03.12.2026 12:54 |
| Story ID: | 560398 |
| Location: | BUFFALO, NEW YORK, US |
| Web Views: | 35 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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