Photo By Pedro Rodriguez | Arlington, Va. (July 16, 2025) - CLEAR’s Principal, Product Manager Vladimir...... read more read more
ARLINGTON, Va. – Leading experts in national security, aviation, and transportation convened this week for a critical workshop, "Defense of the Homeland: Aviation and Transportation in Irregular Warfare." Held from July 15-16 in Arlington, Virginia, the event brought together government officials, military leaders, academics, and industry professionals to explore the evolving threats to U.S. homeland security in an era of irregular and hybrid warfare.
The workshop, organized by the Irregular Warfare Center (IWC), focused on identifying vulnerabilities within the nation's aviation and transportation sectors and developing actionable strategies to enhance resilience against modern threats. Discussions highlighted the blurring lines between traditional warfare and criminal activity, the rapid proliferation of advanced technologies, like drones, and the increasing sophistication of adversarial tactics. The overarching goal was to develop actionable items and define future priorities for the irregular warfare community in safeguarding the homeland.
“In my role as Director of the Homeland Defense Fellowship (HDF) Program and as a faculty member teaching Countering Irregular Warfare at CISA, this workshop offered an important opportunity to engage with a diverse group of experts. Our goal was to confront irregular challenges that pose significant threats to the security of the U.S. homeland,” said Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Chair | Visiting Professor, Director, Homeland Defense Fellowship (HDF) program Mr. Antonio “T” Scurlock.
The Critical Role of Aviation and Transportation in Irregular Warfare
IWC Director Dr. Dennis Walters, a prominent speaker, initiated discussions by emphasizing "the critical role of aviation, airlines, and transportation in irregular warfare." The IWC, with its mission and authorities, aims to address the complex nature of irregular warfare, which often operates below the threshold of conventional conflict. Unlike traditional homeland defense definitions, irregular warfare encompasses a broader spectrum of threats that can significantly impact national security without direct military engagement.
Participants explored the profound implications of disruptions to these vital sectors. For instance, failures in port infrastructure, with 80% of cranes manufactured in the People's Republic of China, present known vulnerabilities susceptible to remote access and control. A hypothetical scenario suggested a complete halt to the maritime supply chain, leading to economic impacts comparable to the $1 billion per day loss experienced during the Port of Los Angeles shutdown due to COVID-19 and labor disputes.
“It is critically important for government personnel and agencies to discuss security challenges across sectors. Cross-domain collaboration strengthens homeland defense and enables proactive responses to emerging threats,” added Shurlock.
Specific threats and their potential impacts included:
Offshore Oil Platforms: Drawing parallels to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill, experts discussed the cyber vulnerabilities of offshore oil platforms, which, if exploited, could trigger a major national emergency with cleanup costs potentially exceeding $65 billion.
GPS Outages: The ease of jamming and spoofing GPS signals, as seen in recent events, could lead to widespread distrust in navigation systems, causing crashes in major waterways and strategic disruptions.
Mass Migration Scenarios: Adversary-induced mass migration, potentially fueled by disinformation campaigns, could overwhelm U.S. border security resources. Historically, events like the 1980 Mariel boatlift and the 1994 Haitian and Cuban interdictions demonstrated the immense strain on resources, a capacity the Coast Guard noted it no longer possesses at the same scale.
New Pandemics: The deliberate manufacturing and spread of a new pandemic by an adversary was considered, highlighting the potential for widespread societal and economic disruption.
Manufactured Wildfires/Natural Disasters: The low-cost potential for adversaries to use drones with incendiary payloads in vulnerable areas to ignite wildfires, causing billions in damage as seen in California, was also discussed.
Asymmetric Attacks: The possibility of a terrorist group releasing a Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) or deploying an underwater unmanned vehicle while the U.S. is distracted by other conflicts was identified as a significant asymmetric threat.
Panelists further elaborated on future homeland threats, including armed water drones, armed ground robot vehicles, static-firearm sniper rifles, weaponized smart safe houses, and coordinated human and drone attacks. These threats, he noted, are often not adequately considered at state, local, or federal levels.
Resilience and Preparedness: A Call for Introspection and Action
A major focus of the workshop was on the urgent need to improve national resilience, capacity, and response awareness within the homeland. Discussions centered on whether existing authorities are sufficient to act decisively in such scenarios and what maritime domain awareness truly entails in a contested environment. The question of personnel capacity, drawing parallels to the 500% increase in the Coast Guard during WWII, highlighted the need for expanded training centers and rapid force generation.
A core message resonated throughout: the homeland is no longer a sanctuary. Participants reflected on Abraham Lincoln's 1838 quote, suggesting that physical presence is no longer required to inflict distress on the homeland, emphasizing the need for offensive thinking and the potential to use similar indirect tools against adversaries.
Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (CUAS): Addressing the Proliferation
The proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and the challenges of effectively countering them in the homeland context were extensively debated. Insights from conflicts in Ukraine and Azerbaijan highlighted the rapid pace of UAS/CUAS development and the incorporation of AI for swarming and "mind hiving" tactics.
The symposium noted a significant demand signal for industry to build CUAS capabilities but also recognized the need to optimize counter-drone operations within high-level strategic competition. A critical assumption challenged was the lack of public approval for using technology that might cause property damage or collateral effects in the homeland; studies suggest high public support for CUAS, especially at military installations, provided senior leaders explain the necessity.
The TSA Federal Air Marshal Service shared insights on the challenges of training and funding for CUAS, noting that counter-UAS is often an "extra" duty. They highlighted the importance of partnering with state and local first responders, providing them with low-cost or no-cost tools and training, such as a three-day course for police officers on identifying nefarious drone activity. A significant concern raised was the sheer volume of drone sightings at airports (500,000 per day), with many operators being "clueless + careless" rather than intentionally malicious, underscoring the need for public education on impacts and laws.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Hybrid Threats to Agriculture
The fragility of global supply chains was a critical discussion point, particularly concerning agriculture. The 2022 fertilizer shortage, exacerbated by geopolitical events, demonstrated how a two-week slowdown could lead to a 30% decrease in yields, highlighting agriculture's designation as critical infrastructure often overlooked in national security planning.
The "PRC Hybrid Playbook" was discussed, detailing strategic pressure on U.S. agriculture through supply chain dominance, industrial espionage, and intellectual property theft. Examples included the acquisition of Syngenta, seed stealing, and the refusal to approve fourth-generation biotech until China gains an advantage. The meat industry, heavily impacted by COVID-19 plant shutdowns, and the control over agricultural technology (Agtech) drones and software (e.g., John Deere's control over farming equipment) were cited as systemic vulnerabilities.
This "bio-cyber-economic hybrid threat nexus" was described as an integrated strategy, not random events, requiring a deliberate posture to safeguard U.S. agriculture. The current U.S. response was characterized as siloed and reactive, underscoring the need for wargames and public-private response tests to identify weak links and policy gaps.
Information Operations: Preparing Populations for Hybrid Threats
The psychological impact of attacks and the role of disinformation and misinformation campaigns in hybrid warfare were extensively examined. The Colonial Pipeline incident, where a ransomware attack led to mass panic and a declared state of emergency, was cited as an example of a hybrid threat where the population's response became part of the attack.
Hybrid threats, operating below the threshold of full-scale war, are difficult to detect and attribute, often combining to create compounding effects that undermine trust in government, institutions, and society. Critical infrastructure, with its interconnectedness and reliance on public-private cooperation, is a key vulnerability, as disruptions rarely stop at borders.
The European experience in preparing populations for hybrid threats offered valuable lessons. Countries like Sweden, through its "Total Defense" strategy and mailed guidebooks, and the UK, with its cyber strategy and Resilience Academy, have actively worked to inform and train their citizens. Romania's Euro-Atlantic Resiliency Centre, established in 2021, embodies a whole-of-government and society approach to building resilience. Key takeaways included the need for clear strategies, policies, and agencies, and the importance of apolitical organizations in preparing populations, especially in politically divided societies.
Strategic Integration, Special Operations, and Future Directions
Discussions on strategic integration highlighted the importance of setting conditions for success in irregular warfare. Adversaries are actively engaged in "Operational Preparation of the Environment (OPE)," establishing economic, social, and political conditions to destabilize their targets. Examples included the increasing number of Chinese nationals crossing the southern border, illicit pot operations funding fentanyl precursors, and Chinese businesses acquiring land near sensitive national security infrastructure. The challenge lies in detecting these disparate actions and understanding their cumulative effect.
The symposium also touched upon the critical need for interagency cooperation, noting that while individual agencies may excel in their "stovepipes of excellence," a unified understanding and response to complex threats are often lacking. The concept of "unity of effort" rather than strict "unity of command" was proposed as a more realistic approach in a multi-stakeholder environment.
Mitigating Cyber Threats to Aviation Operations
Cybersecurity experts from TSA, 7 Viking Security, and CLEAR discussed the evolving nature of cyber threats to aviation. The shift from traditional vulnerabilities to AI-based and insider threat access points was highlighted, with concerns about deepfake and voice spoofing for social engineering. The convergence of IT and operational technology (OT) means that systems like baggage handling and HVAC are now potential targets.
The biggest problem identified was overconfidence in security measures. Experts stressed the need for robust vendor management, contingency plans, and regular tabletop exercises (TTXs) that blend different organizations to identify faults before they occur. The increasing sophistication of fakes necessitates higher fidelity identity verification, potentially leveraging advanced biometrics while ensuring consent and control of data. The promise of AI and machine learning in quickly identifying anomalous behavior was acknowledged, but so were the risks of agentic AI being used offensively and the challenges of integrating new technologies with antiquated legacy systems.
Industry-Government Collaboration on Mobility and Resilience
The critical reliance on commercial airlift for national defense was a key topic. TRANSCOM moves 90% of personnel and 40% of bulk cargo for the Department of Defense via commercial carriers, amounting to billions annually. The State Department also relies heavily on commercial aviation for its personnel and cargo movement.
Maintaining this capacity between crises is a challenge, especially for small-wing and rotary aircraft internationally. The need to foster capabilities through the State Department to ensure American carriers maintain experience in various areas of responsibility was emphasized. Pilot readiness and availability were identified as primary concerns, with companies facing challenges in qualifying pilots for operations in warzones. The importance of deep and ongoing relationships with industry was underscored, with examples like FedEx offering free ships during the Kabul evacuation.
“All of the sessions, “Information Operations in Defense of the Homeland,” “Emerging Technology and Defense of the Homeland,” and “Threat Finance and Economic Levers in Defense of the Homeland”, were outstanding,” said Shurlock. “Each panel provided valuable insights and constructive challenges to prevailing ideas, all within the framework of the Chatham House Rule. I found the case study on hybrid threats targeting U.S. agriculture and agribusiness particularly enlightening.”
A Call for Coherent Action
Throughout the workshop, a clear message emerged: the U.S. homeland faces an array of complex, interconnected, and rapidly evolving irregular and hybrid threats that demand a "whole nation" approach. The discussions highlighted the urgent need for increased awareness, proactive prioritization of threats and resources, and robust collaboration across government, private industry, and civil society.
Mr. Shurlock added that one the major take aways from this workshop the “techniques for building resilience in social and digital information environments; insights into dual-use technologies and anticipating adversary applications; frameworks for disrupting illicit finance networks, including cartel-linked funding streams; and a deeper understanding of the epochal shifts in social and political organization.”
The experts concluded that while the U.S. has significant capabilities, institutional barriers and a lack of a pervasive "defensive mindset" have created vulnerabilities. The symposium served as a critical forum to illuminate these challenges and to begin charting a path forward, emphasizing the importance of continuous education, policy adjustments, and a unified effort to build a more resilient and prepared homeland against the threats of irregular warfare.
| Date Taken: | 07.23.2025 |
| Date Posted: | 07.23.2025 15:02 |
| Story ID: | 543642 |
| Location: | ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA, US |
| Hometown: | ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA, US |
| Hometown: | AVENEL/WASHINGTON, D.C., MARYLAND, US |
| Hometown: | MCLEAN/WASHINGTON, D.C., VIRGINIA, US |
| Web Views: | 88 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
This work, Experts Convene in Arlington to Address Aviation and Transportation Vulnerabilities in Irregular Warfare, by Pedro Rodriguez, identified by DVIDS, must comply with the restrictions shown on https://www.dvidshub.net/about/copyright.
No keywords found.
