Photo By Kelly Morris | Cindy Howell, who serves as a supervisory meteorological technician, explains how her...... read more read more
With the Atlantic hurricane season already underway and running through the end of November, Fort Novosel’s weather team is once again keeping a sharp eye on the tropics.
With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projecting an above average season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 becoming hurricanes including 3-5 major hurricanes this year, the Fort Novosel team is focused on staying vigilant and communicating effectively to protect the mission, thousands of personnel and their families and hundreds of aircraft here.
“The students, the instructors, those helicopters sitting out there, that’s what drives us to do the best we can,” said Cindy L. Howell, who works as a supervisory meteorological technician with the U.S. Air Force’s 18th Combat Weather Squadron.
Fort Novosel’s weather experts bring to the table their service in multiple military branches and more than 120 years of weather experience, with 75 years of experience at Fort Novosel. This time of year, they are keeping an eye on summertime thunderstorms while also monitoring trusted weather sites looking for signs of tropical development so they can prepare to brief the latest data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to leaders and staff highlighting the most likely scenario.
Fort Novosel forecaster Dennis Rice said, “We take a very broad forecast by the Hurricane Center and tailor the forecast to meet our local needs and criteria.”
Howell explained that an area of interest being monitored must have a center of circulation before the NHC labels it a tropical depression.
“We can look at several models and try to get a consensus, but until the storm forms, we can’t track the storm. That’s a hard message sometimes to get across,” said Howell.
Unlike tornados, with hurricanes there is typically a few days’ advance warning.
“Five days out we would have e a pretty good idea that it’s coming into the Gulf, but it’s going to be storm specific,” Howell said. If the hurricane develops in the Gulf, advance warning may shrink down to a couple days.
Some storms have been known to throw a curve or two: Howell, who has monitored the weather here for Fort Novosel for more than 20 years, recalled heading home for a long weekend back in October of 2018 when Hurricane Michael was still an “area of interest.”
“We came back, and it was all crazy,” Howell said. “We kept saying, it’s supposed to turn, why isn’t it turning,” Howell said. “Thank goodness (for us) the next morning it did turn. Another couple of hours on that motion before it turned, and we would have been in deep trouble. We were very, very close.”
“It was a storm that could have had a devastating impact on Fort Novosel if the track had been just 25 miles closer,” Rice noted.
Various sources had reported that Michael was expected to weaken and make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, but it strengthened and made landfall at Mexico Beach, Fla. as an unprecedented Category 5 hurricane, ravaging Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla. As it made its way inland, it caused extensive damage in Alabama including Dothan and Houston County, downing trees, damaging buildings and causing widespread power outages and road closures.
Howell also recalled the entire 2020 season as a busy one, including Hurricane Sally which dumped 10 inches of rain on the Wiregrass. Multiple hurricanes over the years resulted in spin-up tornadoes locally over a period of hours, including Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall over 170 miles away at Gulf Shores, Alabama, in 2004. Even storms as far away as Louisiana can impact the installation.
Howell noted a common misconception when it comes to the “cone of uncertainty” that depicts the probable track of the storm’s center on the map. People may think that if they are located outside the cone, then they are safe.
“We as a weather enterprise tell people not to focus so much on the cone. All that cone is, is two thirds of the time historically the center of the storm has tracked within that cone, that means one third of the time the center is not in that cone,” Howell said.
“And what if the center tracks on the far left of the cone? Then obviously your impacts are going to be much further to the west. Impacts will be felt well outside the cone, again depending on the storm track and how big it is,” Howell said.
Though each storm is unique, there is a typical pattern people can expect.
“If a storm is approaching on a pretty direct path to Fort Novosel, a day before we generally would start seeing rain bands, and then as the storm moves on shore we’re going to see more rain. Our winds will gradually ramp up. And then once the storm gets here, depending on the wind radii, probably just a few hours of the most intense, and as it starts to move off it will gradually taper down,” Howell said.
“It depends on the storm, the size, the track, the forward speed. The faster a storm moves, the further inland it will remain strong. it will be able to hold together longer inland if it's moving faster, if it moves slowly, more time on land (will) tear it apart a little bit more,” she said.
The main impacts locally during a hurricane are typically rain, gusty winds, flash flooding, river flooding and spin-up tornadoes.
“The worst of it going to be a matter of hours,” Howell noted.
There’s no better time than the present—before the storm—to stock up on some extra water, nonperishable food, batteries, develop a plan, and reread the home insurance policy to see if it covers flooding.
In the event of a hurricane, Howell said people can stay informed by following the post’s official social media platforms on Facebook, X. and Instagram, and noted that the weather warnings issued are specific to the installation.
In the event of a major weather event, Howell also urges people to avoid relying on sirens going off as their main means of staying informed. She recommends people install a free weather app on their smartphones to get updates.
“That phone is your best friend,” Howell said.
Howell and her team prepare in advance to help ensure the safety of Fort Novosel’s people and aircraft, including recently creating a new weather common operating picture product.
“It’s a giant product with ten different slides all captured in one,” Howell said.
In a single “eye chart,” the product provides the ‘bottom line up front’ with expected types of weather that is color coded and shows the impacts to Fort Novosel within 96 hours--max winds, how much rainfall is expected, and whether there an expected tornado threat. It includes a breakdown of the seven-day ‘fly-away’ aviation forecast.
For Howell, the hurricane season brings not only a heightened concern for the safety of the mission, but also an excitement at the chance to practice what they learn in tropical forecasting courses.
“It gives us an opportunity to try new things and build new products, build a briefing and (consider) what’s most relevant because there’s so much information out there,” Howell said. “I mean, we go to school for this.”
| Date Taken: | 06.12.2025 |
| Date Posted: | 06.12.2025 11:09 |
| Story ID: | 500427 |
| Location: | FORT NOVOSEL, ALABAMA, US |
| Web Views: | 55 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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