Photo By Maj. Jennifer Gerhardt | Staff Sgt. Timothy Farno, a weather forecaster with the 188th Operations Support...... read more read more
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by Maj Jennifer Gerhardt
Ebbing Air National Guard Base, Ark -- At the 188th Wing in Fort Smith, Arkansas, a small but mighty team of weather forecasters plays an outsized role in supporting the U.S. Air Force’s Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) missions. From a secure facility, these Airmen deliver real-time meteorological intelligence that safeguards aircrews, protects multimillion-dollar aircraft, and ensures the success of global operations.
A typical shift begins with a Mass Crew Brief, where forecasters deliver vital information: weather conditions at takeoff and landing zones, en route forecasts, target-area updates, space weather threats, and satellite communications impacts.
“During this brief, they gain situational awareness about the day’s mission and identify any additional weather data that may need to be passed along mid-flight,” said Senior Master Sgt. Robert Keylon, the Weather Flight superintendent, who has been with the 188th Wing since 1992. “Forecasters provide mission watch from takeoff through landing, alerting crews to any significant changes in weather conditions.”
Unlike traditional Air Force weather teams that focus primarily on base operations or pre-mission planning, the 188th’s Weather Flight is fully integrated into RPA operations. Forecasters are embedded with crews, physically located on the operations floor, and live on headset throughout each sortie.
“There are very few places in the Air Force where your forecasts directly impact a mission in real time,” said Staff Sgt. Michael Baker, a weather forecaster with two years at the wing. “In other units, you are forecasting ahead and don’t hear back until after the mission is completed if at all.”
This real-time integration is critical. From Arkansas, the 188th monitors global regions where traditional radar coverage is minimal. Their rapid updates on thunderstorms, icing, turbulence, and satellite interference enable MQ-9 Reaper crews to operate safely and effectively in contested and dynamic environments.
“As a weather forecaster, I provide detailed atmospheric information tailored to each flight,” said Staff Sgt. Victor Pantoja. “Winds, turbulence, clouds, thunderstorms, icing, snow, and rain—our data helps ensure safe and efficient operations.”
In addition to supporting overseas missions, the team also tracks local weather patterns that could impact base operations. Pantoja said this dual role strengthens their forecasting skills and deepens their situational awareness.
“Forecasting in Arkansas, with its rapidly changing weather, sharpens your edge,” Pantoja said. “I might see blue skies outside our window but be forecasting storms on the other side of the world. You learn to tune into satellite feeds, global models, and real-time data like second nature.”
The forecasters use a network of resources—from military and civilian weather models to radar systems, airport weather sensors, and pilot reports—to produce comprehensive weather products. These tools enable them to deliver mission-critical updates for strike operations and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) flights across time zones.
Training for this responsibility is extensive. New Airmen spend seven months at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi, mastering basic meteorology, followed by five months at Camp Blanding, Florida, focused on RPA-specific procedures. Even after initial training, the learning continues through annual certifications, climatology reviews, and space weather training.
“We do annual certifications and quarterly training on advanced forecasting techniques,” said Keylon. “It keeps our team sharp and prepared for any weather-related challenges.”
Weather forecasting is not a static checklist—it’s a science of prediction and adaptation. Unlike many Air Force roles guided by technical orders or checklists, forecasting demands the ability to interpret fluid and ever-changing data.
It’s a complicated science, and our ability to navigate that uncertainty while delivering accurate, timely information sets us apart,” said Baker. “It’s not always possible to be accurate all the time, but we always do our best to ensure the safety of everyone.”
Keylon emphasized that forecasters for RPA missions play a unique role, especially since RPA crews can't rely on visual cues like traditional pilots.
“Our crews often view the battlespace through a narrow sensor feed—they can’t just look out a window to dodge weather hazards,” he explained. “We’re their eyes for thunderstorm cells or thick clouds to avoid icing. It's not a one-time brief—it’s continuous, real-time situational support.”
The job is demanding, and the stakes are high. A missed forecast could jeopardize a mission or endanger lives. But the forecasters remain motivated by the knowledge that their work underpins enabling global strike and air superiority through safe flight operations, enhancing ISR through clear airspace assessments, supporting cyber and space operations with accurate environmental data, and ensuring mobility and command and control through predictive weather intelligence.
“Unlike your typical TV forecast for a whole city, we focus on specific mission routes and key locations,” said Keylon. “For any Airman considering this career, know this—it’s not easy. The training is tough, the mission is intense, but the impact is real and immediate. You won’t just be reading weather—you’ll be shaping outcomes.”
| Date Taken: | 05.08.2025 |
| Date Posted: | 05.08.2025 19:09 |
| Story ID: | 497455 |
| Location: | ARKANSAS, US |
| Web Views: | 53 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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