WEBVTT 00:05.340 --> 00:07.451 Hello . I'm Dr Brendan Mulvaney , the 00:07.451 --> 00:09.673 director of the china Aerospace studies 00:09.673 --> 00:11.284 Institute And welcome to the 00:11.284 --> 00:13.451 competition with china series . In the 00:13.451 --> 00:15.673 first of the series of discussions that 00:15.673 --> 00:15.620 we will have to describe the people's 00:15.620 --> 00:17.398 Republic of china , the chinese 00:17.398 --> 00:19.610 Communist Party or the CCP and the 00:19.610 --> 00:21.590 armed wing of the CCP known as the 00:21.590 --> 00:23.757 People's Liberation Army , the P . L . 00:23.757 --> 00:25.646 A . This series will also discuss 00:25.646 --> 00:27.701 china's interests at home and abroad 00:27.701 --> 00:29.868 and what coverage china's relationship 00:29.868 --> 00:31.757 with the United States , asia and 00:31.757 --> 00:33.923 international institutions in the area 00:33.923 --> 00:36.090 of strategic competition . This series 00:36.090 --> 00:38.368 will help describe our main competitor , 00:38.368 --> 00:40.534 the nature of that competition and the 00:40.534 --> 00:42.757 implications to the interest the United 00:42.757 --> 00:44.979 States , our allies partners and to the 00:44.979 --> 00:47.201 Free World Order . In this discussion , 00:47.201 --> 00:48.868 we will lay the foundation to 00:48.868 --> 00:51.034 understanding the people's republic of 00:51.034 --> 00:52.979 china as it exists today . We will 00:52.979 --> 00:55.146 cover some of the baseline information 00:55.146 --> 00:54.730 about china . We'll talk about the 00:54.730 --> 00:57.160 single Party , the CCP that maintains 00:57.160 --> 00:59.160 control over all aspects of chinese 00:59.160 --> 01:01.271 governance , the nature of the system 01:01.271 --> 01:03.382 that the Communist Party controls and 01:03.382 --> 01:05.327 some of the overarching themes for 01:05.327 --> 01:07.549 understanding the strategic competition 01:07.549 --> 01:09.604 with china . I want to make clear at 01:09.604 --> 01:11.771 the start that I like China . I really 01:11.771 --> 01:13.938 enjoyed and appreciated the years that 01:13.938 --> 01:16.104 I got to live , study and travel there 01:16.104 --> 01:18.438 with the exception of the 2020 pandemic . 01:18.438 --> 01:20.660 I've been there every single year since 01:20.660 --> 01:22.716 I left . The chinese have a long and 01:22.716 --> 01:24.827 rich history of culture and they have 01:24.827 --> 01:24.810 contributed much to civilization and 01:24.810 --> 01:26.810 there are many areas of cooperation 01:26.810 --> 01:28.588 between our two countries . Our 01:28.588 --> 01:30.810 challenge is not with the people or the 01:30.810 --> 01:32.588 culture of china but with those 01:32.588 --> 01:34.754 currently ruling china and their goals 01:34.754 --> 01:36.643 to challenge the United States to 01:36.643 --> 01:38.754 weaken our allies and partners and to 01:38.754 --> 01:38.600 disturb the global order that has 01:38.600 --> 01:40.378 brought unprecedented peace and 01:40.378 --> 01:42.433 prosperity to the world for the last 01:42.433 --> 01:44.660 seven decades . And who better to 01:44.660 --> 01:46.604 explain the challenges and what it 01:46.604 --> 01:48.771 means to us than the Chief of Staff of 01:48.771 --> 01:50.771 the United States Air Force General 01:50.771 --> 01:52.938 Brown , when I think about great power 01:52.938 --> 01:55.160 competition through the lens of the CCP 01:55.160 --> 01:57.160 and P . L . A . Begins with china's 01:57.160 --> 01:59.271 economic and military growth over the 01:59.271 --> 02:01.493 last 40 years , which they've used as a 02:01.493 --> 02:03.604 springboard to extend their influence 02:03.604 --> 02:05.882 across the region and around the world . 02:05.940 --> 02:08.560 The CCP S expansion brings to mind the 02:08.560 --> 02:10.782 words of an ancient chinese philosopher 02:10.782 --> 02:13.310 Lao Zoo . Nothing is softer or more 02:13.310 --> 02:15.880 flexible than water yet nothing can 02:15.880 --> 02:18.040 resist it . Well , I don't think the 02:18.040 --> 02:20.190 chinese expansion is irresistible . I 02:20.190 --> 02:22.412 do believe that the quote describes the 02:22.412 --> 02:25.010 CPS willingness to use diverse and 02:25.010 --> 02:27.121 sometimes insidious methods to extend 02:27.121 --> 02:29.060 their influence Flexible in our 02:29.060 --> 02:31.540 approach but unyielding in their 02:31.540 --> 02:33.780 methods , China has sought to wrote the 02:33.780 --> 02:35.836 international institutions and rules 02:35.836 --> 02:37.836 that prevented great power wars for 02:37.836 --> 02:40.330 more than 75 years . The challenges 02:40.330 --> 02:42.386 posed by the CCP and P . L . A . Are 02:42.386 --> 02:44.350 complex and require a coordinated 02:44.350 --> 02:47.300 response in support of the US whole of 02:47.300 --> 02:49.411 government approach the department of 02:49.411 --> 02:51.633 the defense and the Air Force will play 02:51.633 --> 02:54.060 important roles as evidence in the 02:54.060 --> 02:55.838 national Defense strategy . The 02:55.838 --> 02:58.004 formation of the D . O . D . S . China 02:58.004 --> 03:00.060 Task Force and my strategic approach 03:00.060 --> 03:02.227 for the Air Force accelerate change to 03:02.227 --> 03:04.449 lose . You see these efforts highlights 03:04.449 --> 03:06.227 that the international security 03:06.227 --> 03:08.338 environment is characterized by great 03:08.338 --> 03:10.338 power competition with china as the 03:10.338 --> 03:12.400 patient threat pursuant to our 03:12.400 --> 03:14.511 strategic approach have also outlined 03:14.511 --> 03:17.360 action order . See competition to make 03:17.360 --> 03:19.660 it clearer that to secure our nation 03:19.670 --> 03:21.781 and its interests , we must study the 03:21.781 --> 03:23.781 chinese and learn what really makes 03:23.781 --> 03:26.320 them tick . That's why I'm pleased to 03:26.320 --> 03:28.780 join Dr Brendan Melody to introduce 03:28.780 --> 03:31.390 this important video series . Thank you 03:31.390 --> 03:33.557 Dr Mulvaney and to the china Aerospace 03:33.557 --> 03:35.557 studies Institute team for the work 03:35.557 --> 03:37.612 you've done and for their tremendous 03:37.612 --> 03:40.080 work you're doing now to enhance our 03:40.090 --> 03:42.090 understanding of the foundations of 03:42.090 --> 03:44.560 competition with china . During my time 03:44.560 --> 03:46.504 as a pack of commander , it became 03:46.504 --> 03:48.616 clear to me that our feature national 03:48.616 --> 03:50.727 and international security were being 03:50.727 --> 03:52.782 increasingly challenged and that our 03:52.782 --> 03:54.893 focus needed to change . For the last 03:54.893 --> 03:56.893 30 years , the US military has been 03:56.893 --> 03:58.671 busy in the Middle East finding 03:58.671 --> 04:00.838 aggressive , brutal regimes in violent 04:00.838 --> 04:02.949 extremist organizations . We've grown 04:02.949 --> 04:05.116 accustomed to permissive logistics and 04:05.116 --> 04:07.282 enjoyed persistent technical overmatch 04:07.282 --> 04:09.116 against non peer adversaries and 04:09.116 --> 04:11.540 violent extremists . Meanwhile , China 04:11.540 --> 04:14.050 has been rising since the early 1980s , 04:14.060 --> 04:16.280 boosted by a rapidly growing economy 04:16.290 --> 04:18.401 that is closely integrated with their 04:18.401 --> 04:21.120 own making the competition very complex . 04:22.020 --> 04:24.242 The CCP has also worked to expand their 04:24.242 --> 04:26.464 influence globally often at the expense 04:26.464 --> 04:28.576 of open markets , international rules 04:28.576 --> 04:31.790 and norms and democratic ideals With 04:31.790 --> 04:34.390 its prosperity , the CCPS funding for 04:34.390 --> 04:36.557 the P . L . A . Has increased from $10 04:36.557 --> 04:39.360 billion in 1989 to an estimated $240 04:39.360 --> 04:41.730 billion . A growth rate . Double tour 04:41.730 --> 04:44.180 on Building the P . L . A . into a 04:44.180 --> 04:46.180 large increasingly capable fighting 04:46.180 --> 04:48.236 force that for the last 30 years has 04:48.236 --> 04:49.958 been watching and studying our 04:49.958 --> 04:52.069 capabilities and tactics , working to 04:52.069 --> 04:53.902 root our military advantages and 04:53.902 --> 04:55.736 multiply no mains and leveraging 04:55.736 --> 04:57.958 diverse methods short of armed conflict 04:57.958 --> 04:59.880 to expand their influence from 04:59.880 --> 05:02.102 establishing military based on the Horn 05:02.102 --> 05:04.047 of Africa to the one Belt one road 05:04.047 --> 05:05.602 initiative and building and 05:05.602 --> 05:07.602 militarizing features International 05:07.602 --> 05:09.824 waters . China has sought to expand its 05:09.824 --> 05:11.824 regional and global influence , has 05:11.824 --> 05:13.547 expanded its military size and 05:13.547 --> 05:15.547 capabilities and has demonstrated a 05:15.547 --> 05:17.658 willingness to sidestep international 05:17.658 --> 05:20.570 laws , rules and norms . The CCP and P . 05:20.570 --> 05:22.681 L . A . Post unique challenges to our 05:22.681 --> 05:24.292 national security and to the 05:24.292 --> 05:26.014 international institutions and 05:26.014 --> 05:28.237 practices that have maintained relative 05:28.237 --> 05:30.600 peace worldwide for 75 years . This 05:30.600 --> 05:32.656 video series will help us understand 05:32.656 --> 05:35.460 china , its people , its culture and 05:35.460 --> 05:38.160 its history because to compete with the 05:38.160 --> 05:40.340 CCP and P . L . A . We have to develop 05:40.340 --> 05:42.396 solid foundations to understand what 05:42.396 --> 05:44.396 influences their decisions and what 05:44.396 --> 05:46.340 motivates their actions and with a 05:46.340 --> 05:48.340 deeper understanding will be better 05:48.340 --> 05:51.180 equipped to compete deter and have 05:51.180 --> 05:53.850 called upon to do so . Fight and win . 05:55.240 --> 05:57.296 We hope that you find this series of 05:57.296 --> 05:59.296 discussions useful in understanding 05:59.296 --> 06:01.518 china , the challenges that opposes why 06:01.518 --> 06:03.684 it's important and how to best perform 06:03.684 --> 06:05.740 in this era of strategic competition 06:05.740 --> 06:07.740 and with that , we'll dive right in 06:10.840 --> 06:12.896 First , some basic information about 06:12.896 --> 06:15.062 what we call China . While the country 06:15.062 --> 06:17.229 that we call China claims to have 5000 06:17.229 --> 06:19.229 years of culture and history of the 06:19.229 --> 06:21.229 modern state , that is the People's 06:21.229 --> 06:23.062 Republic of China Only came into 06:23.062 --> 06:25.229 existence in 1949 at the end of a long 06:25.229 --> 06:27.451 and brutal civil war that was partially 06:27.451 --> 06:29.562 interrupted by the Second World War . 06:29.562 --> 06:31.673 We'll leave the historical background 06:31.673 --> 06:33.896 in the early part of the PRC to another 06:33.896 --> 06:33.740 time , but suffice it to say that the 06:33.740 --> 06:36.640 PRC is not yet a century old and though 06:36.640 --> 06:38.362 it tries to claim the ties and 06:38.362 --> 06:40.680 legitimacy back to china's past , it is 06:40.680 --> 06:42.791 quite different in significant ways . 06:43.240 --> 06:45.351 China today has a population of about 06:45.351 --> 06:47.573 1.4 billion people , which makes it the 06:47.573 --> 06:49.351 largest country in the world by 06:49.351 --> 06:51.407 population . The democratic India is 06:51.407 --> 06:53.573 expected to surpass it within the next 06:53.573 --> 06:55.740 decade . However , because of previous 06:55.740 --> 06:57.629 policies of the Communist Party , 06:57.629 --> 06:59.796 china's demographics are rather skewed 06:59.796 --> 07:01.962 towards men and toward an increasingly 07:01.962 --> 07:04.018 aging population Compared to the 330 07:04.018 --> 07:06.018 million Americans . China has about 07:06.018 --> 07:08.240 four times the number of people . China 07:08.240 --> 07:10.351 is roughly about the same size of the 07:10.351 --> 07:12.518 United States , but only has about 2/3 07:12.518 --> 07:14.740 of the arable land . So the arable land 07:14.740 --> 07:16.907 per capita for China is only about 1/5 07:16.907 --> 07:19.073 of that of the United States And while 07:19.073 --> 07:21.240 the United States has about 44 billion 07:21.240 --> 07:23.407 barrels of proven oil reserves , China 07:23.407 --> 07:25.860 has just over 25 . In fact , China 07:25.860 --> 07:28.570 became a net importer of oil in 1993 . 07:28.580 --> 07:30.720 While the US is now a net exporter of 07:30.720 --> 07:33.450 energy and despite being home to the 07:33.460 --> 07:35.770 part of the Himalayas , china has far 07:35.770 --> 07:37.826 less renewable water than the United 07:37.826 --> 07:40.360 States , About 60 trillion gallons 07:40.360 --> 07:42.582 lists , which is enough to cover all of 07:42.582 --> 07:45.720 California with 21" of water needless 07:45.720 --> 07:47.720 to say china is not as blessed with 07:47.720 --> 07:49.998 natural resources as the United States . 07:50.440 --> 07:52.551 What can try to do with the resources 07:52.551 --> 07:54.718 that it does have ? Let's take a quick 07:54.718 --> 07:56.884 look at the economic numbers , we will 07:56.884 --> 07:59.107 use gross domestic product , which is a 07:59.107 --> 08:00.996 rather poor indicator of national 08:00.996 --> 08:02.773 wealth but is commonly used and 08:02.773 --> 08:04.662 understood . Currently the United 08:04.662 --> 08:06.510 States has a GDP of about $21.4 08:06.510 --> 08:08.960 trillion . After a period of brutal 08:08.960 --> 08:10.970 repression under Mao Zedong China's 08:10.970 --> 08:12.748 sustained three decades of near 08:12.748 --> 08:15.020 double-digit growth in its economy and 08:15.020 --> 08:17.850 its GDP now stands at just over $14 08:17.850 --> 08:19.794 trillion . So the U . S . Is still 08:19.794 --> 08:22.072 about one third larger by this measure . 08:22.072 --> 08:24.490 Now GDP is not perfect for a measure of 08:24.490 --> 08:26.890 economic prosperity . Some people argue 08:26.890 --> 08:29.230 that goods in china cost far less so 08:29.230 --> 08:31.230 the chinese get more bang for their 08:31.230 --> 08:33.452 buck . This is what economists refer to 08:33.452 --> 08:35.760 as purchasing power parody or p P . P . 08:36.540 --> 08:38.651 Economists use P . P . P . To compare 08:38.651 --> 08:40.596 prices on things such as a loaf of 08:40.596 --> 08:43.090 bread , a car or a jet aircraft . If 08:43.090 --> 08:45.201 these things cost a certain amount of 08:45.201 --> 08:46.979 china they would cost a certain 08:46.979 --> 08:49.146 percentage more in the United States . 08:49.146 --> 08:51.312 And that's where we use P . P . P . To 08:51.312 --> 08:51.150 try to figure out how much stuff a 08:51.150 --> 08:53.640 nation can buy . Now this is a crude 08:53.640 --> 08:55.751 estimate and of course you can't make 08:55.751 --> 08:57.862 1-1 comparisons on a national level . 08:57.862 --> 09:00.350 But if you use rough p . p . p . and 09:00.350 --> 09:02.650 apply it to the rough GDP estimate that 09:02.650 --> 09:04.706 China's economy in 2020 was slightly 09:04.706 --> 09:06.817 larger than that of the United States 09:06.817 --> 09:09.700 by about 9% china is the world's 09:09.710 --> 09:11.654 largest trading nation and has the 09:11.654 --> 09:14.230 world's largest middle class . However , 09:14.240 --> 09:16.660 and this is a big however , when you 09:16.660 --> 09:18.882 look at the GDP on a per capita basis , 09:19.020 --> 09:21.660 the U . S . GDP is still 63 times as 09:21.660 --> 09:24.960 large as china's china is a mid ranking 09:24.970 --> 09:27.026 asian country in this measure , just 09:27.026 --> 09:28.914 behind Malaysia and just ahead of 09:28.914 --> 09:31.170 Thailand we reserve the rest of the 09:31.170 --> 09:33.003 economic comparisons for a later 09:33.003 --> 09:35.226 discussion on economic statecraft , the 09:35.226 --> 09:37.170 Belt and road initiative and other 09:37.170 --> 09:39.392 topics . But I wanted you to understand 09:39.392 --> 09:39.380 the basics and to understand that when 09:39.380 --> 09:41.269 people talk about the size of the 09:41.269 --> 09:43.102 chinese economy , there are many 09:43.102 --> 09:45.370 different ways to frame it . China is 09:45.370 --> 09:47.370 ambitious for regional dominance in 09:47.470 --> 09:49.520 increased global influence and the 09:49.520 --> 09:52.320 recovery of land and sea territories 09:52.320 --> 09:54.760 that the CCP CS as rightfully belonging 09:54.760 --> 09:56.830 to the PRC . This is part of the 09:56.830 --> 09:59.052 aggrieved narrative that the party puts 09:59.052 --> 10:01.163 out and it is critically important to 10:01.163 --> 10:03.780 understand how china views its rise and 10:03.780 --> 10:05.836 the historical narrative has a heavy 10:05.836 --> 10:08.710 influence on the present . At its most 10:08.710 --> 10:10.710 basic level . The Communist Party's 10:10.710 --> 10:12.890 narrative of the china's rise lays its 10:12.890 --> 10:14.946 foundations so called the century of 10:14.946 --> 10:17.112 humiliation , beginning with the opium 10:17.112 --> 10:19.334 wars where there was a weak china which 10:19.334 --> 10:21.557 was forced to grant foreign concessions 10:21.557 --> 10:23.779 And ending with the defeat of Japan and 10:23.779 --> 10:25.612 the Western-backed nationalist , 10:25.612 --> 10:27.557 culminating in the founding of the 10:27.557 --> 10:29.668 People's Republic of China in 1949 by 10:29.668 --> 10:31.668 the Communist Party . The CCP story 10:31.668 --> 10:33.660 says that china has stood up never 10:33.660 --> 10:35.549 again to be forced to concede its 10:35.549 --> 10:37.382 interests , China is on the move 10:37.382 --> 10:39.604 globally leveraging its wealth to build 10:39.604 --> 10:42.340 deference and legitimize illiberal 10:42.340 --> 10:45.480 practices through trade , blending aid 10:45.490 --> 10:47.540 and market access , all with the 10:47.540 --> 10:50.510 ultimate goal as Xi Jinping put it of 10:50.540 --> 10:52.596 returning china to the center of the 10:52.596 --> 10:54.596 world stage . This is the narrative 10:54.596 --> 10:56.429 that is taught from grade school 10:56.429 --> 10:58.651 through graduate school in china and is 10:58.651 --> 11:00.318 a driving ideological force . 11:00.318 --> 11:02.484 Underpinning china's outward expansion 11:02.840 --> 11:04.673 and finally , a quick note about 11:04.673 --> 11:06.840 geography , China lives in a dangerous 11:06.840 --> 11:08.729 neighborhood . While the US has a 11:08.729 --> 11:10.729 healthy alliance with Canada to our 11:10.729 --> 11:12.951 north and generally good relations with 11:12.951 --> 11:15.062 Mexico or south and faces no peers or 11:15.062 --> 11:16.896 challenges throughout the entire 11:16.896 --> 11:19.062 Western hemisphere . The PRC however , 11:19.062 --> 11:21.007 is in a very different situation . 11:21.007 --> 11:23.062 China borders Russia a nuclear power 11:23.062 --> 11:25.284 with whom they have almost fought a war 11:25.290 --> 11:27.580 and have a complex relationship to the 11:27.580 --> 11:29.636 west China borders . Its asian rival 11:29.636 --> 11:32.090 India who also has nuclear weapons as 11:32.090 --> 11:34.230 well as Pakistan which also has nukes 11:34.440 --> 11:36.690 and needless to say Pakistan and India 11:36.700 --> 11:38.867 don't get along so well . But Pakistan 11:38.867 --> 11:40.922 happens to be one of china's closest 11:40.922 --> 11:42.922 security relationships . China also 11:42.922 --> 11:45.144 borders the korean peninsula , which is 11:45.144 --> 11:47.311 a challenge in the best of times . The 11:47.311 --> 11:49.422 Dprk has nuclear weapons and conducts 11:49.422 --> 11:51.200 missile tests which are driving 11:51.200 --> 11:53.144 instability on the peninsula . And 11:53.144 --> 11:55.144 while china seeks to promote better 11:55.144 --> 11:57.367 relations with democratic South Korea , 11:57.367 --> 11:59.422 its tacit support of the north makes 11:59.422 --> 12:01.589 improving relations with south Korea a 12:01.589 --> 12:03.756 challenge . China's historical rival . 12:03.756 --> 12:05.978 Japan has one of the best militaries in 12:05.978 --> 12:08.256 the world and is the strongest in Asia . 12:08.256 --> 12:10.367 And while for cultural and historical 12:10.367 --> 12:12.256 reasons , Japan has chosen not to 12:12.256 --> 12:14.422 pursue nuclear weapons . They could do 12:14.422 --> 12:16.478 so in a very short span of time . If 12:16.478 --> 12:18.533 that policy ever changed . China has 12:18.533 --> 12:20.644 territorial disputes with many of its 12:20.644 --> 12:22.811 southeast Asian neighbours , mainly in 12:22.811 --> 12:24.867 the south china sea as well as Japan 12:24.867 --> 12:24.530 and the Senkaku islands , which the 12:24.530 --> 12:26.760 chinese referred to as the Diaoyu . In 12:26.760 --> 12:28.871 fact , China has territorial disputes 12:28.871 --> 12:31.820 with 17 other countries which brings me 12:31.820 --> 12:33.931 to a point we'll cover later though . 12:33.931 --> 12:35.931 Is shocked to some of those here in 12:35.931 --> 12:38.153 Washington D . C . Not everything china 12:38.153 --> 12:40.320 does is related to the United States . 12:40.320 --> 12:42.542 Sino american relations is not the sole 12:42.542 --> 12:44.598 driver of china's decision making on 12:44.598 --> 12:46.376 the global stage to include its 12:46.376 --> 12:48.598 military advances . China has plenty of 12:48.598 --> 12:50.876 other challenges with which to contend , 12:50.876 --> 12:53.300 Oh and don't forget about the 1.4 12:53.300 --> 12:55.930 billion people that live in China , 12:56.210 --> 12:58.266 million of which continue to live on 12:58.266 --> 13:00.300 less than $5 a day . The poverty in 13:00.300 --> 13:02.520 china is far better than before . This 13:02.520 --> 13:04.610 remains china's number one challenge 13:04.620 --> 13:06.842 and the thing that takes up most of the 13:06.842 --> 13:08.842 PRC's time , the PRC has three main 13:08.842 --> 13:10.953 focus areas . Their feed the people , 13:10.953 --> 13:12.953 feed the people , feed the people . 13:13.240 --> 13:15.462 It's only after the domestic issues and 13:15.462 --> 13:17.240 challenges are managed that the 13:17.240 --> 13:19.296 Communist Party has time to turn its 13:19.296 --> 13:21.462 attention to other matters . The C . C 13:21.462 --> 13:23.184 C C C . P prioritizes economic 13:23.184 --> 13:25.520 development as a central task and the 13:25.520 --> 13:27.687 force that drives Piercy modernization 13:27.687 --> 13:29.742 across all areas including its armed 13:29.742 --> 13:30.742 forces . 13:35.640 --> 13:37.862 There are whole books written trying to 13:37.862 --> 13:40.029 describe the chinese Communist Party , 13:40.029 --> 13:42.251 its leaders , how it works , etcetera . 13:42.251 --> 13:44.251 So we won't go too deeply into that 13:44.251 --> 13:46.307 today . But you need to have a basic 13:46.307 --> 13:48.473 understanding of what the CCP is , how 13:48.473 --> 13:50.584 it operates and how it pervades china 13:50.584 --> 13:52.751 and chinese society and the challenges 13:52.751 --> 13:54.696 that opposes the chinese Communist 13:54.696 --> 13:56.862 Party controls china . If you remember 13:56.862 --> 13:58.918 nothing else . Remember this , it is 13:58.918 --> 14:01.084 not a political party that we think of 14:01.084 --> 14:03.084 in the west , it is an organization 14:03.084 --> 14:05.140 that dominates any and all facets of 14:05.140 --> 14:07.084 governance in china from the local 14:07.084 --> 14:09.140 village , all the way through to the 14:09.140 --> 14:10.807 national government and every 14:10.807 --> 14:12.918 organization in between . It dictates 14:12.918 --> 14:14.890 the correct ways of thinking . It 14:14.890 --> 14:17.001 determines what is permissible and it 14:17.001 --> 14:19.168 ensures there are no opportunities for 14:19.168 --> 14:21.279 alternate centers of power to arise . 14:21.279 --> 14:23.279 This was most recently demonstrated 14:23.279 --> 14:24.946 when the party leadership was 14:24.946 --> 14:27.168 displeased at the comments made by Jack 14:27.168 --> 14:29.334 Ma . Perhaps you've heard of Jack Ma , 14:29.334 --> 14:31.557 He is widely regarded as one of China's 14:31.557 --> 14:33.723 richest men . The founder of Alabama , 14:33.723 --> 14:35.890 Aka China's Amazon and currently worth 14:35.890 --> 14:38.910 about $48 billion . Jack Ma's ant group 14:38.910 --> 14:41.077 was supposed to have an initial public 14:41.077 --> 14:43.021 offering in december of 2020 which 14:43.021 --> 14:45.210 would have raised just under 34 a half 14:45.220 --> 14:47.331 billion dollars , setting a new world 14:47.331 --> 14:50.360 record and valuing the company at $313 14:50.360 --> 14:53.020 billion . However , he had publicly 14:53.020 --> 14:54.909 criticized Xi Jinping's signature 14:54.909 --> 14:56.964 campaign to control financial risk , 14:56.964 --> 14:59.076 saying that it's stifled innovation . 14:59.220 --> 15:01.276 This displeased the party leadership 15:01.276 --> 15:03.331 and they had regulators canceled the 15:03.331 --> 15:05.276 IPO just days before it's launched 15:05.276 --> 15:07.540 needless to say the party doesn't favor 15:07.540 --> 15:10.140 public criticism of its wisdom or its 15:10.140 --> 15:13.520 leadership from anyone . And while you 15:13.520 --> 15:15.631 may hear people say that China is now 15:15.631 --> 15:17.970 communist in name only or they're only 15:17.970 --> 15:20.260 a one party capitalist country , don't 15:20.260 --> 15:22.482 believe it , although they have adopted 15:22.482 --> 15:24.538 certain modern economic policies and 15:24.538 --> 15:26.760 mechanisms . The party is at its core , 15:26.760 --> 15:28.920 still a Marxist leninist party that 15:28.920 --> 15:31.280 believes in party led decisions . Party 15:31.280 --> 15:33.420 guided commerce and party directed 15:33.420 --> 15:35.620 financial controls . It is a party 15:35.620 --> 15:38.300 state system meant to serve the CCP , 15:38.310 --> 15:41.250 its leaders and its world vision and to 15:41.250 --> 15:43.250 make sure that everyone understands 15:43.250 --> 15:45.472 that the party recently published a new 15:45.472 --> 15:47.710 regulations in order to quote , further 15:47.710 --> 15:49.830 strengthen the party's leadership of 15:49.830 --> 15:52.520 private economic united front work and 15:52.520 --> 15:54.464 to better integrate the wisdom and 15:54.464 --> 15:56.631 strength of the private economy to the 15:56.631 --> 15:58.687 goal and task of achieving the great 15:58.687 --> 16:00.909 rejuvenation of the chinese nation . As 16:00.909 --> 16:03.131 an additional note , I tell people that 16:03.131 --> 16:05.187 the CCP are good Communists . What I 16:05.187 --> 16:07.190 mean by that is they believe in the 16:07.190 --> 16:09.460 Hegelian dialectic , the Marxist 16:09.470 --> 16:12.330 outlook , leninist organizations and 16:12.330 --> 16:15.010 the scientific approach to problems . 16:15.020 --> 16:17.290 They believe at their core that all 16:17.290 --> 16:19.401 things are knowable and if you gather 16:19.401 --> 16:21.760 enough data , have the right thinking , 16:22.440 --> 16:24.690 judge the situation correctly and write 16:24.690 --> 16:26.912 the write algorithm , then all problems 16:26.912 --> 16:29.023 are solvable . They think in terms of 16:29.023 --> 16:31.134 systems all of which are interrelated 16:31.240 --> 16:33.670 and all of which are knowable . This 16:33.670 --> 16:35.710 explains their love of big data and 16:35.710 --> 16:37.877 their drive for high power computing . 16:37.877 --> 16:39.821 It also explains why they feel the 16:39.821 --> 16:41.932 party must be the leading institution 16:41.932 --> 16:44.180 across all of society because the 16:44.180 --> 16:47.010 systems are all interwoven . This 16:47.010 --> 16:49.010 requires long term planning , which 16:49.010 --> 16:50.732 they do on a five year basis , 16:50.732 --> 16:53.370 publishing the plan tracking progress 16:53.370 --> 16:55.710 on that plan , adjusting path to remain 16:55.710 --> 16:58.310 on or return to that plan . This is at 16:58.310 --> 17:00.366 the heart of what the party believes 17:00.366 --> 17:02.588 and what they strive for and it affects 17:02.588 --> 17:04.790 how they view the world . Now , the 17:04.790 --> 17:06.957 party has an organization department , 17:06.957 --> 17:09.290 which at first glance sounds reasonable , 17:09.340 --> 17:11.340 but this department is in charge of 17:11.340 --> 17:13.507 every single major position in china's 17:13.507 --> 17:15.284 governance structure and in its 17:15.284 --> 17:17.940 economic sector , the party chooses who 17:17.940 --> 17:20.270 leads the national Champion , cos it's 17:20.270 --> 17:22.437 state owned enterprises as well as who 17:22.437 --> 17:24.810 sits in local city province and 17:24.810 --> 17:26.532 national positions on both the 17:26.532 --> 17:28.754 government side of the house and within 17:28.754 --> 17:30.890 its parallel party structure . Across 17:30.890 --> 17:33.057 the government and across the nation , 17:33.057 --> 17:35.001 there are parallel organizations , 17:35.001 --> 17:37.057 often with overlapping memberships , 17:37.240 --> 17:39.090 but at all times it is the party 17:39.090 --> 17:41.180 organization that dictates the party 17:41.180 --> 17:44.960 decides the state merely executes . So 17:44.970 --> 17:47.137 a university will have a president and 17:47.137 --> 17:49.192 a city will have a mayor , but it is 17:49.192 --> 17:51.248 the party chairman of the university 17:51.248 --> 17:53.414 and the head of the party for the city 17:53.414 --> 17:53.330 that make all the decisions and have 17:53.340 --> 17:55.500 all the power . The state merely 17:55.510 --> 17:58.940 implements those decisions . A top of 17:58.940 --> 18:00.662 the party . Since the standing 18:00.662 --> 18:02.607 committee of the Central Political 18:02.607 --> 18:04.829 bureau of the Chinese Communist Party , 18:04.829 --> 18:06.773 These currently seven men and it's 18:06.773 --> 18:08.996 always been , men are the most powerful 18:08.996 --> 18:10.996 people in china and they sit at the 18:10.996 --> 18:12.884 head of the organization that can 18:12.884 --> 18:14.996 decide every facet of life within the 18:14.996 --> 18:17.218 PRC and at the head of the CCP standing 18:17.218 --> 18:19.329 committee is Xi Jinping . I wanted to 18:19.329 --> 18:21.496 take just a quick minute to talk about 18:21.496 --> 18:23.607 Xi Jinping , not so much his personal 18:23.607 --> 18:25.773 background , but his positions far and 18:25.773 --> 18:27.996 away . The most important title that he 18:27.996 --> 18:29.884 holds is General Secretary of the 18:29.884 --> 18:32.051 Communist Party of china , which makes 18:32.051 --> 18:34.273 them the head of the politburo standing 18:34.273 --> 18:36.384 Committee . His second most important 18:36.384 --> 18:38.218 title is that of chairman of the 18:38.218 --> 18:40.329 party's Central Military Commission . 18:40.329 --> 18:42.530 The CMC . The CMC is the highest 18:42.530 --> 18:44.641 command authority of the military and 18:44.641 --> 18:46.863 is loosely similar to the United States 18:46.863 --> 18:48.808 National Command Authority . It is 18:48.808 --> 18:50.974 through this position that she Jinping 18:50.974 --> 18:53.141 controls the military . Currently , he 18:53.141 --> 18:55.030 is the only civilian on the seven 18:55.030 --> 18:58.050 member CMC and finally , his third 18:58.050 --> 18:59.970 title and least important from an 18:59.970 --> 19:02.248 organization or governance perspective , 19:02.248 --> 19:04.359 is President of the People's Republic 19:04.359 --> 19:06.359 of China , the state apparatus that 19:06.359 --> 19:09.340 administers the nation more a title 19:09.350 --> 19:11.461 that can really be used to facilitate 19:11.461 --> 19:13.294 diplomatic relations . Not to be 19:13.294 --> 19:15.239 confused with Premier of the State 19:15.239 --> 19:17.072 council , who's in theoretically 19:17.072 --> 19:19.294 managed the state bureaucracy . A quick 19:19.294 --> 19:21.406 aside about Xi Jinping , you may have 19:21.406 --> 19:23.461 heard people say that he's appointed 19:23.461 --> 19:25.572 himself Leader for life . Well , this 19:25.572 --> 19:27.794 may or may not be his intention . It is 19:27.794 --> 19:29.961 inaccurate to say at this point , it's 19:29.961 --> 19:32.072 true that he had the state remove the 19:32.072 --> 19:31.320 term limit restrictions on the 19:31.320 --> 19:33.910 presidency , but neither the party nor 19:33.910 --> 19:36.880 the CMC had such limits , But he's yet 19:36.880 --> 19:38.991 to reach the end of his second term . 19:38.991 --> 19:41.750 So as such , he's still within the norm 19:41.760 --> 19:44.240 of leaders since 1989 . And we'll have 19:44.240 --> 19:46.530 to wait until 2022 to see what he does 19:46.530 --> 19:49.640 next . And while it seems natural today , 19:49.650 --> 19:51.594 that one person would serve in all 19:51.594 --> 19:53.317 three of these roles akin to a 19:53.317 --> 19:55.206 combination of the roles that the 19:55.206 --> 19:57.372 President , United States fills . This 19:57.372 --> 19:57.280 was not the case for most of history of 19:57.280 --> 20:00.020 the PRC . In fact , except for a short 20:00.020 --> 20:02.131 time in the mid-50s , it wasn't until 20:02.131 --> 20:04.540 1993 when Jiang Zemin finally took the 20:04.540 --> 20:06.707 mantle of president for himself , that 20:06.707 --> 20:08.929 the three positions were consolidated . 20:08.929 --> 20:10.970 And then for two years after john 20:10.970 --> 20:13.192 stepped down from his role as president 20:13.192 --> 20:15.192 and general secretary , he actually 20:15.192 --> 20:16.970 maintained his grip on power by 20:16.970 --> 20:19.137 remaining as the chairman of the CMC . 20:19.137 --> 20:21.650 So it really wasn't until 2012 when Xi 20:21.650 --> 20:23.790 Jinping took over from Hu Jintao as 20:23.790 --> 20:25.901 General Secretary and Chairman of the 20:25.901 --> 20:27.940 CMC . And then in January of 2013 , 20:27.950 --> 20:30.061 when he took over as president , that 20:30.061 --> 20:32.320 one person assumed all three roles all 20:32.320 --> 20:34.820 at the same time . But once again , the 20:34.820 --> 20:36.930 party decided before the state and 20:36.930 --> 20:40.850 decided for the state to conclude , I 20:40.850 --> 20:42.906 say again , the party is the leading 20:42.906 --> 20:45.017 organization in the People's Republic 20:45.017 --> 20:46.017 of china . 20:50.240 --> 20:52.462 Now we'll talk more at length about the 20:52.462 --> 20:54.684 People's Liberation Army , but I wanted 20:54.684 --> 20:56.740 to give you a quick overview First , 20:56.740 --> 20:59.018 the name in english is less than ideal , 20:59.018 --> 21:00.851 although we call it the People's 21:00.851 --> 21:02.962 Liberation Army , it really refers to 21:02.962 --> 21:05.129 all of the military Forces . So that's 21:05.129 --> 21:04.980 how you get something called the 21:04.980 --> 21:07.410 People's Liberation Army Navy or the 21:07.410 --> 21:10.330 plan . Now the People's Liberation Army 21:10.340 --> 21:13.580 is not the army of china . It is not 21:13.580 --> 21:15.747 there to protect the People's Republic 21:15.747 --> 21:17.913 of china . It is the armed wing of the 21:17.913 --> 21:20.060 Communist Party and this is a very 21:20.060 --> 21:21.940 important distinction when the 21:21.950 --> 21:23.894 interests of the Chinese Communist 21:23.894 --> 21:26.117 Party aligned with the interests of the 21:26.117 --> 21:28.283 People's Republic then the police will 21:28.283 --> 21:30.283 protect them . However , when those 21:30.283 --> 21:32.450 interests are not aligned or when they 21:32.450 --> 21:34.672 are in conflict with the party then the 21:34.672 --> 21:36.783 party will use the parties armed wing 21:36.783 --> 21:38.950 the P . L . A . To protect the party's 21:38.950 --> 21:40.894 interest . And this is how you get 21:40.894 --> 21:42.894 Tiananmen Square . The students and 21:42.894 --> 21:44.728 Chinese citizens who gathered in 21:44.728 --> 21:46.728 Tiananmen Square in 1989 were not a 21:46.728 --> 21:48.561 threat to the government . Their 21:48.561 --> 21:50.506 intention was not to overthrow the 21:50.506 --> 21:52.617 government . But to the contrary they 21:52.617 --> 21:54.783 actually wanted a bigger voice in that 21:54.783 --> 21:56.728 very government . They wanted more 21:56.728 --> 21:58.950 democracy and hand in the governance of 21:58.950 --> 22:01.117 china . This was in no way a threat to 22:01.117 --> 22:03.283 the government of the PRC . But it was 22:03.283 --> 22:02.960 a direct threat to the Chinese 22:02.960 --> 22:05.071 Communist Party because it threatened 22:05.071 --> 22:07.071 to weaken their grip on power . And 22:07.071 --> 22:09.238 when push came to shove the party used 22:09.238 --> 22:11.550 the party's army to protect the party 22:11.580 --> 22:14.440 and killed , injured or jailed tens of 22:14.440 --> 22:16.510 thousands of chinese citizens asking 22:16.510 --> 22:18.843 for say in how to run their own country . 22:19.440 --> 22:21.162 And this is why it's important 22:21.162 --> 22:23.329 understand that the P . L . A . Is not 22:23.329 --> 22:25.496 just china's military but it is rather 22:25.496 --> 22:27.718 the armed wing of a single Party trying 22:27.718 --> 22:30.050 to hold on to power within the P . L . 22:30.050 --> 22:32.106 A . There's itself , there are party 22:32.106 --> 22:33.939 committees , there are political 22:33.939 --> 22:36.106 commissars and political officers from 22:36.106 --> 22:38.328 the very top of the P . L . A . All the 22:38.328 --> 22:40.383 way down to the company level and in 22:40.383 --> 22:42.272 each organization in between each 22:42.272 --> 22:44.606 organization also has a party committee . 22:44.606 --> 22:46.328 So the division , regiment and 22:46.328 --> 22:48.494 battalion will have party committees , 22:48.494 --> 22:50.606 but so will the regiment's operations 22:50.606 --> 22:52.661 department . And then even with that 22:52.661 --> 22:52.170 the operations departments training 22:52.170 --> 22:54.281 section will have a party committee . 22:54.281 --> 22:56.370 It is pervasive throughout it is the 22:56.370 --> 22:58.426 party committee that makes decisions 22:58.426 --> 23:00.370 for the organization and it is the 23:00.370 --> 23:02.314 political officer or the political 23:02.314 --> 23:04.620 commissar that chairs the meeting , not 23:04.630 --> 23:07.270 the commander . So it is the PC that 23:07.270 --> 23:09.890 really is the first among equals . And 23:09.890 --> 23:12.112 of course to sit on a party committee , 23:12.112 --> 23:14.223 one must be a member of the Communist 23:14.223 --> 23:16.112 Party . So it's a requirement for 23:16.112 --> 23:18.057 nearly all officers above cadet or 23:18.057 --> 23:20.168 lieutenant level to be members of the 23:20.168 --> 23:22.390 chinese Communist Party . And of note , 23:22.390 --> 23:24.680 almost no enlisted members are so they 23:24.680 --> 23:26.458 can't sit on any of these party 23:26.458 --> 23:28.513 committees . This is not the same as 23:28.513 --> 23:30.624 the soviet military where the PCS and 23:30.624 --> 23:32.680 the political officers were there to 23:32.680 --> 23:34.958 spy on the military . In the P . L . A . 23:34.958 --> 23:36.624 The political officers are an 23:36.624 --> 23:38.847 integrated part of the military . Often 23:38.847 --> 23:41.069 starting off as what we would call line 23:41.069 --> 23:43.291 officers . These officers are trained , 23:43.291 --> 23:45.236 they stand watch , they understand 23:45.236 --> 23:47.347 military decision making and they are 23:47.347 --> 23:49.458 intimately involved with it . The CCP 23:49.458 --> 23:51.291 does not want political officers 23:51.291 --> 23:53.069 overruling commanders or having 23:53.069 --> 23:55.236 committees making bad decisions due to 23:55.236 --> 23:57.347 a lack of knowledge or training . And 23:57.347 --> 23:59.458 speaking of training fully 1/3 of all 23:59.458 --> 24:01.458 training in the Paella is political 24:01.458 --> 24:03.680 training . So think of all the training 24:03.680 --> 24:05.624 that you do service training , job 24:05.624 --> 24:07.624 training , cybersecurity training , 24:07.624 --> 24:10.450 etcetera and add one more third onto 24:10.450 --> 24:12.800 that that is focused solely on the 24:12.810 --> 24:15.350 right way to think and how to follow 24:15.350 --> 24:17.406 the party doctrine . The party's new 24:17.406 --> 24:19.628 doctor is known as Xi Jinping Thought , 24:19.628 --> 24:21.628 which ensures that the paella stays 24:21.628 --> 24:23.850 loyal to the party . Today's armed wing 24:23.850 --> 24:26.072 of the Communist Party stands about two 24:26.072 --> 24:27.961 million men strong and yes , it's 24:27.961 --> 24:30.250 overwhelmingly still men In late 2015 , 24:30.250 --> 24:32.361 in early 2016 and underwent a massive 24:32.361 --> 24:34.583 reorganization . They cut approximately 24:34.583 --> 24:37.810 300,000 people from the p . one half of 24:37.810 --> 24:40.690 which were officers . They also created 24:40.700 --> 24:42.811 a land component headquarters for the 24:42.811 --> 24:44.922 first time ever now known as the army 24:44.922 --> 24:46.922 headquarters . So we find ourselves 24:46.922 --> 24:49.033 referring redundantly to the People's 24:49.033 --> 24:51.550 Liberation Army Army headquarters , 24:52.140 --> 24:54.362 which is now distinct from the People's 24:54.362 --> 24:56.084 Liberation Army headquarters . 24:56.440 --> 24:58.662 Previously , the army had dominated the 24:58.662 --> 25:00.829 military , such that the law was first 25:00.829 --> 25:02.829 and foremost , an army command with 25:02.829 --> 25:04.773 each of the other services falling 25:04.773 --> 25:06.996 under the army umbrella . This resulted 25:06.996 --> 25:09.107 in a host of differences from Western 25:09.107 --> 25:11.218 militaries , for example , until late 25:11.218 --> 25:13.273 the late 19 nineties , if you were a 25:13.273 --> 25:15.273 naval officer who went to serve FTl 25:15.273 --> 25:17.496 headquarters , you wore an army uniform 25:17.840 --> 25:20.900 and in a twist , the Navy's current 25:20.900 --> 25:22.956 representative on this party Central 25:22.956 --> 25:25.290 Military Commission is in fact a 45 25:25.290 --> 25:28.170 year army officer who moved the Navy 25:28.180 --> 25:31.220 only in 2014 . Additionally , in the 25:31.220 --> 25:33.740 2016 reforms , the P . L . A . Upgraded 25:33.740 --> 25:35.796 their rocket forces to be a co equal 25:35.796 --> 25:37.851 service with the ground forces , the 25:37.851 --> 25:39.796 Navy and the Air Force . They also 25:39.796 --> 25:42.018 established the Strategic support force 25:42.018 --> 25:44.073 which combines their space and cyber 25:44.073 --> 25:46.440 forces into one organization and they 25:46.450 --> 25:48.506 established a joint logistic support 25:48.506 --> 25:50.617 force that focuses on modernizing the 25:50.617 --> 25:53.340 PLA's logistics for war . The P . L . A . 25:53.340 --> 25:55.562 Also shifted its overall organization , 25:55.562 --> 25:57.618 creating theatre commands focused on 25:57.618 --> 25:59.740 war fighting loosely analogous to US 25:59.740 --> 26:01.962 combat commands but at this point still 26:01.962 --> 26:04.073 limited to the geographic confines of 26:04.073 --> 26:06.720 what we consider china . This is an 26:06.720 --> 26:09.090 important point to note that as of now , 26:09.090 --> 26:11.450 the paella plans to play a home game . 26:12.120 --> 26:14.342 They expect that any conflict that will 26:14.342 --> 26:16.564 rise will be on or near their borders . 26:16.564 --> 26:18.564 They plan to have interior lines of 26:18.564 --> 26:20.731 supply and communication and they plan 26:20.731 --> 26:22.953 to have sanctuary to some degree on the 26:22.953 --> 26:25.030 PRC mainland . This is an important 26:25.030 --> 26:27.141 factor in understanding the decisions 26:27.141 --> 26:29.474 that the party and the P . L . A . Make . 26:29.474 --> 26:31.252 In terms of weapons tactics and 26:31.252 --> 26:33.570 strategies . The reform also shifted 26:33.570 --> 26:35.737 the services to a role more focused on 26:35.740 --> 26:37.907 man train and equip similar to that of 26:37.907 --> 26:40.540 the United States . The plot is now 26:40.540 --> 26:42.262 focused on improving its joint 26:42.262 --> 26:44.429 capabilities and is organizing for war 26:44.429 --> 26:47.310 fighting operations . A huge shift from 26:47.310 --> 26:49.460 the army dominated homeland defense 26:49.460 --> 26:51.293 posture that had existed for the 26:51.293 --> 26:53.430 previous seven years . This was a 26:53.430 --> 26:55.550 massive shift and is still unfolding 26:55.940 --> 26:58.107 and it was not without a great deal of 26:58.107 --> 27:00.162 disruption across the plaza , but it 27:00.162 --> 27:02.329 was necessary for the party to prepare 27:02.329 --> 27:04.440 its military to accomplish its future 27:04.440 --> 27:06.920 goals and a note about that disruption . 27:06.980 --> 27:09.910 A downsized reorganization and reform 27:09.910 --> 27:12.360 of this magnitude has widespread impact . 27:12.940 --> 27:14.940 However , for the last decade , the 27:14.940 --> 27:16.884 chinese have described the current 27:16.884 --> 27:18.829 international situation as a quote 27:18.829 --> 27:20.996 period of strategic opportunity . What 27:20.996 --> 27:23.051 this means for them is that they see 27:23.051 --> 27:25.162 this period as one devoid of national 27:25.162 --> 27:27.329 level threats and very low chances for 27:27.329 --> 27:29.384 major conflict or great power wars . 27:30.040 --> 27:32.207 They want to take maximum advantage of 27:32.207 --> 27:34.318 this period in which china can assert 27:34.318 --> 27:36.318 its interests including territorial 27:36.318 --> 27:38.207 claims where it is unlikely to be 27:38.207 --> 27:40.290 vigorously contested . They have 27:40.290 --> 27:42.512 assessed that now is the time to take a 27:42.512 --> 27:44.679 level of strategic risk in order to be 27:44.679 --> 27:46.734 prepared for when this period ends . 27:47.240 --> 27:49.296 I've used the analogy that the party 27:49.296 --> 27:51.510 has taken the time now to break a bone 27:51.510 --> 27:53.500 that was growing incorrectly by 27:53.500 --> 27:55.556 disrupting the party throughout anti 27:55.556 --> 27:57.778 corruption purchase and the P . L . A . 27:57.778 --> 27:59.778 Through major reorganization of its 27:59.778 --> 28:01.889 units and reform of its were fighting 28:01.889 --> 28:03.722 theories and tactics with a much 28:03.722 --> 28:05.778 greater focus on jointness . So that 28:05.778 --> 28:08.520 this bone has time to reset and re heal 28:08.530 --> 28:10.697 and will be ready to go when the party 28:10.697 --> 28:13.850 calls on it . Perhaps In the 2035 2049 28:13.860 --> 28:17.670 time period . This has also led in my 28:17.670 --> 28:19.420 estimation to appeal A that is 28:19.420 --> 28:21.770 currently focused on being good enough . 28:22.440 --> 28:24.662 While they certainly have a stated goal 28:24.662 --> 28:26.773 of becoming a world class military by 28:26.773 --> 28:28.773 2049 for now they're satisfied with 28:28.840 --> 28:31.050 good enough . They don't have to be as 28:31.050 --> 28:32.883 good as the world's best stealth 28:32.883 --> 28:34.994 aircraft . They just have to have one 28:34.994 --> 28:36.883 that keeps the US at bay or gives 28:36.883 --> 28:38.772 american planners pause . They're 28:38.772 --> 28:40.883 building air to air missiles that out 28:40.883 --> 28:42.883 fly those in the United States . So 28:42.883 --> 28:42.710 they don't need to go toe to toe with 28:42.710 --> 28:45.400 US air power . They adapted ballistic 28:45.400 --> 28:47.567 missiles to shoot at naval forces . So 28:47.567 --> 28:49.622 the P . L . A . Navy doesn't need to 28:49.622 --> 28:51.678 engage directly in surface warfare . 28:51.678 --> 28:53.844 And while they build their own carrier 28:53.844 --> 28:56.011 fleet they have the sanctuary and they 28:56.011 --> 28:57.956 plan on playing a home game in and 28:57.956 --> 29:00.270 around china's territory over Taiwan or 29:00.270 --> 29:02.270 the south china sea where they have 29:02.270 --> 29:04.830 interior lines . So they have started 29:04.830 --> 29:06.941 in some places . But they have yet to 29:06.941 --> 29:09.108 really focus on building the tools and 29:09.108 --> 29:11.163 platforms necessary for truly global 29:11.163 --> 29:13.960 operations . This is by no means to say 29:13.970 --> 29:16.081 that the party won't fight today have 29:16.081 --> 29:18.303 pushed or that the P . L . A . Won't be 29:18.303 --> 29:20.526 used before then . Indeed the P . L . A 29:20.526 --> 29:22.748 very well may want to try out their new 29:22.748 --> 29:25.020 concepts and weapons in practice before 29:25.020 --> 29:27.020 they step up to the real game . But 29:27.020 --> 29:29.720 since the 2015 2016 reforms , the P . L . 29:29.720 --> 29:31.831 A . has not been ready or is prepared 29:31.831 --> 29:33.942 for battle as they will be . Once the 29:33.942 --> 29:35.998 scars from these reforms have healed 29:35.998 --> 29:37.942 over will go much more into detail 29:37.942 --> 29:39.998 about the paella , about each of the 29:39.998 --> 29:41.887 branches and the forces and their 29:41.887 --> 29:43.776 strategic aims etcetera in future 29:43.776 --> 29:45.887 discussions . But today's P . L . A . 29:45.887 --> 29:47.887 is far different from what was even 29:47.887 --> 29:50.053 just 10 years ago . They are not 10 ft 29:50.053 --> 29:52.109 tall , they are not the equal to the 29:52.109 --> 29:54.220 United States and our allies but they 29:54.220 --> 29:56.442 know what they need to do . They have a 29:56.442 --> 29:58.498 plan to do it and they are executing 29:58.498 --> 30:00.553 against that plan . And a quick note 30:00.553 --> 30:02.609 about allies and partners . They are 30:02.609 --> 30:04.831 our backbone of strength across the end 30:04.831 --> 30:07.053 of pacific you have just us strategists 30:07.053 --> 30:09.164 can debate about standing or standoff 30:09.164 --> 30:11.276 forces and postures but Japan Korea , 30:11.276 --> 30:13.331 Taiwan Singapore and the Philippines 30:13.331 --> 30:16.440 are all stand in , live in stay in and 30:16.440 --> 30:18.720 we have to keep that in mind that by 30:18.720 --> 30:20.980 and large it isn't US territory or 30:20.990 --> 30:23.046 economic zones that are really being 30:23.046 --> 30:25.157 challenged or threatened but those of 30:25.157 --> 30:27.212 our allies and our partners but it's 30:27.212 --> 30:29.379 the same allies . Partners and friends 30:29.379 --> 30:29.240 that also provide us crucial 30:29.240 --> 30:31.230 capabilities and capacity that we 30:31.230 --> 30:34.550 wouldn't have otherwise and they are 30:34.550 --> 30:36.439 the very manifestation of why the 30:36.439 --> 30:38.550 competition of china isn't just about 30:38.550 --> 30:40.272 the U . S . And china but as a 30:40.272 --> 30:42.383 challenge confronting democratic free 30:42.383 --> 30:44.717 market nations alike . More importantly , 30:44.717 --> 30:46.772 they represent something the U . S . 30:46.772 --> 30:48.661 Has many of and china has none of 30:48.661 --> 30:48.160 allies . 30:53.240 --> 30:55.296 The chinese Communist Party not only 30:55.296 --> 30:57.184 controls the government but has a 30:57.184 --> 30:59.351 presence in every major organization , 30:59.351 --> 31:01.296 including economic , technical and 31:01.296 --> 31:03.518 academic entities . Just last year they 31:03.518 --> 31:05.370 passed the opinions concerning 31:05.370 --> 31:07.592 strengthening for new area united front 31:07.592 --> 31:09.910 work in the private economy . This 31:09.910 --> 31:11.854 policy sets out a plan for the CCP 31:11.854 --> 31:14.077 organs to take a closer and more direct 31:14.077 --> 31:16.330 role in supervising china's private 31:16.330 --> 31:19.180 sector enterprises . Consequently , 31:19.190 --> 31:21.180 china is able to pursue not only a 31:21.180 --> 31:23.347 whole of government approach to policy 31:23.347 --> 31:25.124 but a whole of society approach 31:25.124 --> 31:27.236 incorporating elements that are often 31:27.236 --> 31:29.124 beyond the reach of other nations 31:29.124 --> 31:30.902 because of the way the people's 31:30.902 --> 31:32.958 republic of china is governed by the 31:32.958 --> 31:34.958 party . It is able to pursue a more 31:34.958 --> 31:37.013 holistic approach to the policy over 31:37.013 --> 31:39.236 the long term . When a communist leader 31:39.236 --> 31:41.236 comes to power in China , they know 31:41.236 --> 31:43.291 that they have 10 years typically in 31:43.291 --> 31:45.402 which to lay out their plans , adjust 31:45.402 --> 31:47.624 the system to match and then maintain a 31:47.624 --> 31:49.791 stable policy environment matched with 31:49.791 --> 31:51.736 funding and a relatively compliant 31:51.736 --> 31:53.958 state apparatus . Furthermore , chinese 31:53.958 --> 31:56.069 leaders , while they may contend with 31:56.069 --> 31:58.013 some factional infighting , can be 31:58.013 --> 31:59.902 confident that they will not face 31:59.902 --> 32:01.624 criticism from a free press or 32:01.624 --> 32:03.736 opposition parties which simply don't 32:03.736 --> 32:05.569 exist . Additionally , the party 32:05.569 --> 32:07.740 leadership by and large grooms and 32:07.740 --> 32:09.740 select it's own replacements , thus 32:09.740 --> 32:11.462 improving the chances that are 32:11.462 --> 32:13.573 particularly significant program will 32:13.573 --> 32:15.573 continue even after a leader leaves 32:15.573 --> 32:17.820 office . The party uses an idea they 32:17.820 --> 32:19.987 call comprehensive national power as a 32:19.987 --> 32:22.209 guidepost to their progress of national 32:22.209 --> 32:24.640 strength . C . And P . Is the complete 32:24.640 --> 32:26.820 power and international influence that 32:26.820 --> 32:28.990 a sovereign country uses and develops 32:29.290 --> 32:31.720 and this includes and I quote from them 32:31.950 --> 32:34.750 the economy , science , technology , 32:35.020 --> 32:38.450 education , culture values , military 32:38.670 --> 32:40.890 governance , diplomacy and other 32:40.890 --> 32:43.850 sectors . The party sees all of these 32:43.860 --> 32:46.480 systems as a part of a greater whole 32:46.490 --> 32:49.270 and as such works to huge each of them 32:49.270 --> 32:51.326 to achieve china's strategic goals . 32:51.640 --> 32:53.973 Unlike in free and democratic societies , 32:53.973 --> 32:56.029 the chinese Communist Party does not 32:56.029 --> 32:57.862 have to contend with elections , 32:57.862 --> 32:59.696 independent courts , independent 32:59.696 --> 33:01.862 companies and corporate boards or free 33:01.862 --> 33:03.973 media organizations in the pursuit of 33:03.973 --> 33:06.196 its goals . Rather it leverages each of 33:06.196 --> 33:07.973 these things . It's state owned 33:07.973 --> 33:10.140 enterprises , it's state owned banks , 33:10.140 --> 33:12.307 its state run media in order to pursue 33:12.307 --> 33:15.490 its goals at home and abroad . This is 33:15.490 --> 33:17.268 further magnified through their 33:17.268 --> 33:19.212 national level strategic policy of 33:19.212 --> 33:21.379 military civil fusion . Although we'll 33:21.379 --> 33:23.434 have another lecture on the military 33:23.434 --> 33:25.601 civil fusion system , a quick overview 33:25.601 --> 33:27.546 is in order , china takes a techno 33:27.546 --> 33:29.546 nationalist approach to science and 33:29.546 --> 33:31.768 technology . Over the last decade , the 33:31.768 --> 33:33.823 party in the PRC have passed several 33:33.823 --> 33:35.712 regulations and laws that require 33:35.712 --> 33:37.268 companies as well as social 33:37.268 --> 33:39.490 organizations , government agencies and 33:39.490 --> 33:41.490 ministries to provide access to any 33:41.490 --> 33:43.490 data that they may possess that the 33:43.490 --> 33:45.657 state determines is of strategic value 33:45.657 --> 33:47.601 to them . The party has explicitly 33:47.601 --> 33:49.379 stated that quote , a country's 33:49.379 --> 33:51.212 military security is tied to its 33:51.212 --> 33:53.046 ability to independently develop 33:53.046 --> 33:55.268 advanced technologies and china pursues 33:55.268 --> 33:57.268 those goals commercially as well as 33:57.268 --> 33:59.950 through its state led institutions and 33:59.950 --> 34:01.839 through the military civil fusion 34:01.839 --> 34:03.783 system . All of the technology and 34:03.783 --> 34:05.672 advancements are filtered back to 34:05.672 --> 34:07.783 increase comprehensive national power 34:07.783 --> 34:09.900 and to strengthen the P . L . A . We 34:09.900 --> 34:11.678 will talk more about the entire 34:11.678 --> 34:13.400 propaganda system that the CCP 34:13.400 --> 34:15.289 employees , both domestically and 34:15.289 --> 34:17.233 internationally through the United 34:17.233 --> 34:19.122 Front . But just remember the one 34:19.122 --> 34:21.344 central pillar of a leninist party used 34:21.344 --> 34:23.456 to control the narrative . China does 34:23.456 --> 34:25.567 this through ownership and control of 34:25.567 --> 34:27.678 the media within china through strict 34:27.678 --> 34:29.844 censorship of speech and information , 34:29.844 --> 34:31.844 particularly on the internet and in 34:31.844 --> 34:34.011 modern social media and through social 34:34.011 --> 34:35.844 organizations like the Confucius 34:35.844 --> 34:37.956 Institutes and the United Front . For 34:37.956 --> 34:39.844 example , PRC media reports often 34:39.844 --> 34:42.100 highlight efforts by china to prevent 34:42.110 --> 34:44.054 the weaponization weaponization of 34:44.054 --> 34:46.300 space and portray US actions as 34:46.300 --> 34:48.356 deleting to an unwanted arms race in 34:48.356 --> 34:50.522 space which is contrary to the facts . 34:51.410 --> 34:53.521 They also use diplomatic tools toward 34:53.521 --> 34:55.590 the same goals . She's naturally 34:55.600 --> 34:57.990 rejuvenation rhetoric suggests that 34:57.990 --> 35:00.440 China day is simply reclaiming its 35:00.440 --> 35:02.700 proper place in the global order and 35:02.700 --> 35:05.050 writing the scales of history . She 35:05.050 --> 35:07.272 further states that china's policy goal 35:07.272 --> 35:09.050 is building a shared vision for 35:09.050 --> 35:11.820 humanity . China uses the ability to to 35:11.820 --> 35:13.820 act in the United nations and other 35:13.820 --> 35:16.210 international bodies to use this shared 35:16.210 --> 35:19.190 vision narrative to shape china's to 35:19.190 --> 35:21.079 shape international governance in 35:21.079 --> 35:23.480 china's favor China's shared Vision 35:23.480 --> 35:26.130 Framework is also evident in the Belt 35:26.130 --> 35:27.908 and Road Initiative , a Chinese 35:27.908 --> 35:30.130 economic effort to connect more than 70 35:30.130 --> 35:32.970 countries spanning Asia Europe Africa . 35:34.000 --> 35:35.833 The B . R . E . Seeks to build a 35:35.833 --> 35:37.944 network of countries aligned with the 35:37.944 --> 35:39.944 PRC's foreign policy objectives and 35:39.944 --> 35:41.667 ideology . China first secures 35:41.667 --> 35:43.667 infrastructure contracts in various 35:43.667 --> 35:45.889 countries and then ensures that china's 35:45.889 --> 35:47.667 industry will be pivotal in the 35:47.667 --> 35:49.667 projects continued operations . For 35:49.667 --> 35:51.556 example , space based information 35:51.556 --> 35:53.611 support is increasingly essential to 35:53.611 --> 35:55.556 the successful operation of modern 35:55.556 --> 35:58.100 complex systems , pipelines , power 35:58.100 --> 35:59.989 grids and even telecommunications 35:59.989 --> 36:02.920 networks all rely on PMT signals to 36:02.920 --> 36:05.480 synchronize their operations . This 36:05.480 --> 36:07.202 means that the chinese bait oh 36:07.202 --> 36:09.369 satellite system which is their answer 36:09.369 --> 36:11.536 to american GPS will play a vital role 36:11.536 --> 36:13.758 not only for surveying and planning the 36:13.758 --> 36:15.980 key construction sites that are part of 36:15.980 --> 36:17.813 the MRI , but also for the basic 36:17.813 --> 36:19.258 operation of much of that 36:19.258 --> 36:21.424 infrastructure . Once it's completed , 36:21.424 --> 36:23.591 it is the party , the government , the 36:23.591 --> 36:25.530 P . L . A . Chinese companies and 36:25.530 --> 36:27.630 chinese social organizations , all 36:27.630 --> 36:29.910 working our times being forced to work 36:29.920 --> 36:31.920 together toward the goal set by the 36:31.920 --> 36:34.060 party and its general secretary , Xi 36:34.060 --> 36:35.060 Jinping . 36:39.530 --> 36:41.530 We've covered quite a bit today and 36:41.530 --> 36:43.474 will be hosting more discussions , 36:43.474 --> 36:45.697 delivering more lectures and publishing 36:45.697 --> 36:47.808 more research to help everyone become 36:47.808 --> 36:49.863 better acquainted with the strategic 36:49.863 --> 36:51.919 competition with china , but just to 36:51.919 --> 36:51.890 drive home a few points . The challenge 36:51.900 --> 36:53.990 isn't with the chinese people , but 36:53.990 --> 36:55.934 rather the Communist Party and its 36:55.934 --> 36:57.990 armed wing , the People's Liberation 36:57.990 --> 37:00.330 Army and the competition isn't just 37:00.330 --> 37:02.163 about the U . S . And china . It 37:02.163 --> 37:04.108 involves our allies , partners and 37:04.108 --> 37:06.163 friends and other nations across the 37:06.163 --> 37:08.274 end of pacific and around the world . 37:08.274 --> 37:10.497 We need to always keep that in mind and 37:10.497 --> 37:12.719 to find ways to work with and alongside 37:12.719 --> 37:14.886 our allies and partners to ensure that 37:14.886 --> 37:16.997 their interests are secure as well as 37:16.997 --> 37:19.163 ours . The CCP has assessed this to be 37:19.163 --> 37:21.330 a period of strategic opportunity that 37:21.330 --> 37:23.552 they're taking . A calculated strategic 37:23.552 --> 37:25.719 risk . Now in order to ensure that the 37:25.719 --> 37:27.886 state the party and its army are ready 37:27.886 --> 37:30.108 when called upon in the not too distant 37:30.108 --> 37:32.620 future and it is a whole society 37:32.620 --> 37:34.990 challenge . We face concerted efforts 37:35.000 --> 37:37.222 not just from the government of the PRC 37:37.222 --> 37:39.167 or even just the chinese Communist 37:39.167 --> 37:41.250 Party and its P . L . A . But across 37:41.250 --> 37:43.490 commercial , economic and social 37:43.490 --> 37:45.830 institutions that the party dominates 37:45.850 --> 37:48.290 and controls and forces compliance 37:48.300 --> 37:51.450 through laws , regulations and policies 37:51.930 --> 37:53.830 that makes commercial and private 37:53.830 --> 37:55.890 companies and organizations you of 37:55.890 --> 37:58.550 whatever the party sees fit . This is a 37:58.550 --> 38:01.350 long term broad ranging competition 38:01.410 --> 38:03.632 with large and substantial challenger . 38:04.030 --> 38:06.030 We hope that this discussion series 38:06.030 --> 38:08.141 helps keep the U . S . And our allies 38:08.141 --> 38:10.252 and partners ahead of the competition 38:10.252 --> 38:11.250 now and in the future . Thank you