WEBVTT

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Hello and welcome to this virtual event .

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That's the institute . My name is

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Rebecca . Higher if some senior fellow

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at Hudson and I am joined today by

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Doctor Marc J . Lewis , who is the

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director of defense research and

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engineering for modernization in

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Houston . For being here with us . We

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are going to talk about your 11

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priorities in your portfolio . We are

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going to focus on the top three , I

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believe , and you can feel free to

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correct me if I'm wrong there . Uh , I

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like to start off by talking about

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microelectronics , and then we will

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move into five G and the night My my

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intense , is to camp out a longer on

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the subject of hypersonic weapons of

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both offense and defense . So on

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microelectronics , you have said that

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we need to operate and develop trusted

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components in zero trust environments .

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Can you explain for us what that means ?

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Sure . So ? So , to be specific , we're

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not really looking at making the

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components themselves trusted . All

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right , What we're looking at doing is

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establishing the infrastructure and

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standards so that we can trust what

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comes out of whatever microelectronic

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components were using . So by way of

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explanation , Let me Let me kind of

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explain where we are now and then where

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we want to go . So today , um , we buy

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trusted electronic components from from

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what we think are of as trusted sources

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the trusted foundries and a trusted

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foundry . A foundry is a facility that

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manufacturers microelectronics . Um ,

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they're very expensive facilities to

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build , take significant capital

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investment . Uh , not not only to build

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them , but to maintain them and to keep

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them state of the art .

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Microelectronics is an industry is

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always advancing . They're always

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looking at at ways to upgrade and

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update the products that they produce .

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In the trusted foundry model , you

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essentially establish one or several

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foundries where you have total control

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of the manufacturing process . That is ,

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you control everything going in ,

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everything going out , you control

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everything . Everyone who touches the

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microelectronics , you do background

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checks on everyone . You have fences

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and guards and gates surrounding your

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foundry . Um , it's a model that the

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United States Department defense

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embraced , uh , in the nineties and

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in large measure , Um , I think we can

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say it hasn't worked out very well ,

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and I'll explain why so First , um ,

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the department offense is a relatively

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small purchaser of electron ICS

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compared to the global market . Unlike

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aircraft carriers were the only buyers ,

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Um , and you know much , many other

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technologies directed energy and ah ,

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and parts of space . The department

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defense is just a couple of percentage

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of the total microelectronics by , and

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the result is that it's it's really

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hard for industry to build a business

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case solely based on the needs of the

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department defense . So what we've

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tended to see happen is the companies

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that have have have gone down the path

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of establishing these trusted foundries .

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I found it . It's very difficult to

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make the case toe , continue to update

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and upgrade and make sure that they're

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at the state of the art . So the result

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has been that at the department ,

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defense is not buying parts , not

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buying components that are state of the

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art . Some cases they're a generation

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or two behind , so that's a problem

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right there . The other problem is that

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it creates a vulnerability in the

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supply chain because if you've only got

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one or two trusted sources , then

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suddenly if those sources disappears ,

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thought manufacturing for whatever

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reason , well , obviously it into

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interferes with the supply of those

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components into the department offense .

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But there's 1/3 part of this that that

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we're very concerned about as well .

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And that is it . The whole philosophy

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trusted foundries can lead to a false

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sense of security . I think we've seen ,

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um , unfortunately had several examples

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where we realize that our greatest

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intelligence vulnerabilities sometimes

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coming from the insider threat , you

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know , think about the Snowden is of

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the world who are inside . We think

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they're trusted . We've done the

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background checks , we've done the

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background searches . Then we found out

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No , actually , they represented

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vulnerability . And so when you go down

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the path of a of a fully trusted

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facility , you run the risk of frankly

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fooling yourself into thinking you've

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got You've got secure capabilities when

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in fact you don't . You could often ,

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you know , miss the biggest

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vulnerability . So the approach that we

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are pursuing , the one that we're

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interested in in our office is what we

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call the zero trust approach , where

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you no longer depend on guards and

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fences and gates and guns and

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background checks . Instead , you first

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by commercial components that you're

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always at state of the art so that

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you're leveraging the investments that

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are being made in the commercial side

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and then use various techniques again ,

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standards the protocols that you build

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in the way you handle the data to

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ensure yourself that the parts that

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you're buying that you're putting into

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your into your your systems , they're

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doing what you think they're doing and

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you're protecting the data and

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protecting the information in many ways .

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Old Ron analogy to To the cyber defense

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world You know , early cyber efforts

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were focused in large measure toe kind

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of building cyber fences , you know ,

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establishing a if you will , ah , cyber

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firewall and then convincing yourself

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that everything inside the fence was

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safe and secure and everything outside

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the fence was was questionable . We've

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realized that doesn't work very well ,

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And and so just as the cybersecurity

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world has moved on , we think that the

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microelectronics world has to move on

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as well . That's great . Thank you for

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that . Um , let's let's talk a little

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bit about five G again if we could If

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you could explain on five G uh ,

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why this is so important . I think

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sometimes we can assume your audience

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knows that we're talking about here .

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Why is so important as we look at the

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national defense strategy for back to

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major power competition ? We're really

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concerned about the Chinese and five G

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networks in particular , and why it's

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so important to the United States to

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have that right . So So you're right .

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We consider five you to be absolutely

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critical . And , you know , for your

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viewers who are maybe not as familiar

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with five g I'm the way I like to think

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about it is it's much more than just a

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slightly faster Internet , all right ,

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it's It's much more data . It's much

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smaller . Layton , see , So it allows

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you to do so many more things than we

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can currently do with is the way we

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handle our data . Um , the way we

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interact , interconnect our systems the

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way we reconnect our various fighters ,

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For example , um , are people in the

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field the sorts of capabilities that we

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can bring for training ? Um , the whole

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Internet of things where we have

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various components are linked , Ah ,

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through information sharing that all

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starts become possible as we pursue

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these five G capabilities , and

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probably at this point , give me to

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point out we don't see five g is being

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a single goal post so we don't think

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you get some point . You declare

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victory . We've got five g . We won the

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race . Let's let's stop here We see a

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continue evolution . We talk about five

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g two next G because we see a continual

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development of increased data handling

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reduced late and see more kick bowling

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assistant . Alright , So why is this

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important ? Well , we dont want to be

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able to operate in any environment . We

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want to be able to do information

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exchange in either a friendly or

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hostile information environment and

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five G is gonna be critical to that .

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Um , we need to have robust systems .

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We need to have systems that are in

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some cases , self healing that are

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interconnected because we see that

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information exchange is really at the

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heart of the battle of the future .

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It's that full conductivity , making

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sure our various weapons systems are

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connected . Make sure our services air

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connected , um , make best use of you

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know , our the sense is that we have

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available on the options that we have

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available to bring bring to the fight

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as we see five years being one of those

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enabling capabilities that factors into

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a lot of the work that we're talking

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about doing in fully network command

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control Communications is as one of our

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future modernization goals . Um , we

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think the United States has to lead ,

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and by lead the United States needs to

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set the international standards . And

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we're taking the lesson from the

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previous generation for G . So the

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United States that an amazing job of

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leading the international's efforts in

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establishing the standards for four G

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and that put us and by us I mean none

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of the government but industry and a

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key in a key place for deciding the

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future of that technology will . Now

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we're seeing the same thing with five ,

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and and frankly , we're seeing some of

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our pure competitors trying to step up .

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You mentioned China . So China ,

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obviously is , is making a big play on

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the hardware side , but also in trying

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to set those international standards .

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And he who set so standards basically

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gets to decide what this all looks like .

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So we have ah , very robust program in

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five G . We're doing , for example ,

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Siris of experiments at various

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military installations . I've got a

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technical director for five g . My Name

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of Joe Evans . Joe joined us from DARPA ,

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and he's overseeing these experiments

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and one of the things about department

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defenses . It's It's easy first , to do

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these sort of laboratory type

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experiments . No military facilities

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are in some cases , the perfect Petri

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dish for doing these sorts of tests and

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experiments were doing . We're doing

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experiments it'll look at using

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resemble virtual reality for training

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enabled by five G . We're looking at

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spectrum sharing . That's one of our

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other key issues . Ah , as we go

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forward in five and we hope that the

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department fence can therefore

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essentially lead in these national

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efforts and help enable industry to not

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only meet the needs of department

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events , but but but the country as a

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whole . Great . I could

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I could to ask about three more follow

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ups on five G , but in the insert

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interest of time . Because I am so

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interested in talking a little bit

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hypersonic , both offensive and

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defensive plans for that , Then I'm

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gonna go ahead and just leave that

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there and turned now to hyper sonics .

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Um , you , I think , have been , um ,

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very eloquent on explaining that what

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we want right now . If you want

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battlefield dominance when we're

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talking about major power competition

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and we've we lost that and some ,

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uh , some domains in some areas on

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others , it's it's closed or it's too

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close for comfort , right ? Can you Can

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you talk about hypersonic ? Why ? Why

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do we care so much about these

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particular weapons systems ? And why

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the Russians and the Chinese again

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going back the natural defense strategy ?

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What ? Why ? Why is it so concerning

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that those that those two countries

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have invested so heavily in this

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particular kind of weapons system and

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why it matters that the United States

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hasn't and why it matters , that we

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needed me to move pretty quickly out on

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this particular capabilities ?

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Absolutely . So So , our interest in

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hyper Sonics really comes about because

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we're interested in penetrating for

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long range is with

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with tremendous resiliency , right way

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want to be able to reach out and touch ,

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um , potential adversaries . Um , um ,

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be able to survive , uh , in doing that .

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And so So we think hypersonic gives us

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gives us that capability , you know ,

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is that sometimes we joke in my office

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if we thought jellyfish would allow us

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to travel , you know , 1000 nautical

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miles Ah , and and and and and be be

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unstoppable . We'd be pursuing

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jellyfish , but we don't We think it's

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hyper sonics . And what is it about

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hypersonic settle ? Let's let's just do

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that . Well , hyper Sonics actually is

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often , ah , thought of only as speed .

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But it's actually combination of

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several things its speed , its

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maneuverability . And then it's the

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altitude . So trajectories with which

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these systems operate , so speed is

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important . Speed gives you Ah , pity

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of action gives you a quick response .

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It also challenges your adversary . It

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allows you to get inside the

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adversaries . You dilute the observe ,

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Orient , decide and act loop that we

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talked about frequently in the Pentagon .

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Right . As we're flying at Mach five ,

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you're traveling at hypersonic speeds

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Mach five . You're covering about a

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mile of second , so that doesn't give

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your potential adversary a lot of time

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to figure out what you are beside .

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That you're coming and then take some

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action , decide what you're planning on

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doing and take some corrective action .

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So speed is essential . Maneuverability

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is also really important . So we build

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hypersonic systems today , every I C B

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m that's reentering for space is

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traveling at hypersonic speeds . Every

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spacecraft , you know , the space

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shuttle came in hypersonic speeds , but

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we talk about hyper sciences . It's

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really a shorthand for hypersonic

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inside the atmosphere . So systems that

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would use aerodynamics for maneuvering

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so that the trajectory becomes less

12:42.627 --> 12:44.849
predictable . All right , So it again ,

12:44.849 --> 12:47.071
harder to stop . And then finally , the

12:47.071 --> 12:46.990
trajectory . So hypersonic systems ,

12:46.990 --> 12:49.212
because during the atmosphere they wind

12:49.212 --> 12:51.101
up being in a sweet spot at their

12:51.101 --> 12:53.046
relatively hard to detect from the

12:53.046 --> 12:55.268
ground . But they can also be difficult

12:55.268 --> 12:57.546
detect from higher altitude from space .

12:57.546 --> 12:59.712
Not impossible , by the way , but more

12:59.712 --> 13:01.879
difficult . So those attributes coming

13:01.879 --> 13:03.823
together , we believe , produced a

13:03.823 --> 13:06.157
category a class of weapons system that ,

13:06.157 --> 13:10.050
um is , uh , frankly , um , heart

13:10.050 --> 13:12.217
hard to counter . And that's why we're

13:12.217 --> 13:14.217
interested in also , that's why our

13:14.217 --> 13:16.106
potential adversaries AARP , your

13:16.106 --> 13:18.328
competitors are interested in as well .

13:18.328 --> 13:21.600
So why is this so important ? Um , I'll

13:21.600 --> 13:23.860
argue that ah , hypersonic tactical

13:23.860 --> 13:26.470
system suddenly has strategic

13:26.480 --> 13:28.530
implications . So if someone could

13:28.530 --> 13:31.380
build a tactical hypersonic weapon that

13:31.380 --> 13:33.720
could say , hold one of our carrier

13:33.720 --> 13:36.510
test forces at risk , then suddenly ,

13:36.520 --> 13:38.687
suddenly they've got a tactical system

13:38.687 --> 13:40.853
which will , which can match our first

13:40.853 --> 13:43.400
class Navy without there having a first

13:43.400 --> 13:45.344
class . Think if they can hold our

13:45.344 --> 13:47.400
airfields at risk . If they can take

13:47.400 --> 13:49.567
out our aircraft before they ever take

13:49.567 --> 13:51.622
to the air , then they can with this

13:51.622 --> 13:54.110
tactical system applies strategic level

13:54.110 --> 13:56.332
capabilities against our first rate air

13:56.332 --> 13:58.554
force . So we we really do think it's a

13:58.554 --> 14:00.610
game changer . Um , there's another

14:00.610 --> 14:02.499
element of this , and that is for

14:02.499 --> 14:04.721
obviously for many decades , the United

14:04.721 --> 14:06.443
States has invested in stealth

14:06.443 --> 14:08.499
technology as being are leading edge

14:08.499 --> 14:10.554
defining technology . And there's no

14:10.554 --> 14:10.500
question that the stealth revolution

14:10.500 --> 14:12.722
was absolutely phenomenal . Book of the

14:12.722 --> 14:14.778
impact that self had and some of the

14:14.778 --> 14:16.667
conflict that we were involved in

14:16.667 --> 14:18.722
starting in the in the nineties with

14:18.722 --> 14:20.944
the first Gulf War , Um , Stealth lived

14:20.944 --> 14:23.278
up to all of its promises and then some .

14:23.278 --> 14:25.700
Well , entire world has now had three

14:25.700 --> 14:27.700
decades to see how we use stealth .

14:28.140 --> 14:30.140
They've been able develop their own

14:30.140 --> 14:32.140
stealth capabilities . They've been

14:32.140 --> 14:32.010
ableto think through how they would

14:32.010 --> 14:34.177
counter are our stealth capabilities ,

14:34.177 --> 14:36.232
and so we no longer have that avenge

14:36.232 --> 14:39.590
that we once had . Um , so what's next ?

14:39.590 --> 14:41.760
Well , on a very simple level stealth

14:41.760 --> 14:45.400
means they can't see me . Um , if they

14:45.400 --> 14:47.400
conceive me anyway that I think the

14:47.400 --> 14:49.344
next step is the hypersonic step ,

14:49.344 --> 14:51.511
which means they may be conceived me .

14:51.511 --> 14:53.511
But they'll see me a little bit too

14:53.511 --> 14:53.260
late to do anything . And if they try

14:53.260 --> 14:55.538
to do something , it will be extremely ,

14:55.538 --> 14:57.450
extremely difficult . Something

14:57.460 --> 14:59.627
sometimes been accused of saying Speed

14:59.627 --> 15:02.460
is a new stealth Like , uh um , it's

15:02.460 --> 15:04.238
bit of a bit of a bit of a glib

15:04.238 --> 15:06.238
catchphrase , but I think there's a

15:06.238 --> 15:08.404
truth , the truth to that and that its

15:08.404 --> 15:11.120
next trend , I believe in in in weapons

15:11.120 --> 15:14.160
technology , Um , in terms of kind of a

15:14.160 --> 15:16.160
troubling aspect of this . So , you

15:16.160 --> 15:18.271
know , as as as your question alludes

15:18.271 --> 15:20.650
to , we've seen our competitors invest

15:20.650 --> 15:22.650
very , very heavily in hypersonic .

15:22.650 --> 15:24.910
It's , um , I I've been quoted on

15:24.910 --> 15:27.077
occasions saying we did their homework

15:27.077 --> 15:29.077
for them . I mean , this is a field

15:29.077 --> 15:31.021
that we invented . Um , we did the

15:31.021 --> 15:32.854
fundamental work . I'm at the 19

15:32.854 --> 15:34.688
fifties . We did the fundamental

15:34.688 --> 15:36.799
research . We developed concepts . We

15:36.799 --> 15:39.021
did the experiments , we did the ground

15:39.021 --> 15:41.021
test . We did the first significant

15:41.021 --> 15:43.188
flight test , and then we kind of took

15:43.188 --> 15:45.077
our foot off the gas . We weren't

15:45.077 --> 15:47.188
moving at a sufficient pace , and and

15:47.188 --> 15:49.410
we did even worse because we produced a

15:49.410 --> 15:51.466
number of policy documents that that

15:51.466 --> 15:53.688
describe the attributes of hyper sonics

15:53.688 --> 15:53.420
and why I was so valuable to the future

15:53.420 --> 15:55.476
fight . And then we didn't listen to

15:55.476 --> 15:57.309
our own advice . And it gave our

15:57.309 --> 15:59.390
potential competitors a significant

15:59.390 --> 16:01.600
opportunity with with big investments

16:01.870 --> 16:03.981
to play , catch up and build build on

16:03.981 --> 16:05.981
our work . And so now we're in this

16:05.981 --> 16:08.320
situation where we are truly in a three

16:08.320 --> 16:11.220
way race and we feel that sense of like

16:11.270 --> 16:14.670
alacrity , right ? And on that point to ,

16:14.900 --> 16:17.011
you know , it's not . Not because the

16:17.011 --> 16:19.122
United States has done something that

16:19.122 --> 16:20.733
has incited these other pure

16:20.733 --> 16:22.622
competitors toe , then go ahead ,

16:22.622 --> 16:24.789
invest in these technologies . They're

16:24.789 --> 16:24.180
investing in these technologies because

16:24.180 --> 16:26.513
they see it in their national interests ,

16:26.513 --> 16:28.940
and we're the ones that are behind . I

16:28.950 --> 16:31.006
thought this was interesting , too .

16:31.006 --> 16:33.228
You've been working on these issues and

16:33.228 --> 16:33.200
focusing on them . You're very familiar

16:33.200 --> 16:36.430
with the history of them . Um , what is

16:36.430 --> 16:38.541
different ? You have mentioned in the

16:38.541 --> 16:41.160
past that we have failed way we've

16:41.160 --> 16:43.382
invested in or we look that examine and

16:43.382 --> 16:44.938
done a lot of work on these

16:44.938 --> 16:47.104
technologies in the past , But then we

16:47.104 --> 16:49.271
failed to transition from research and

16:49.271 --> 16:51.850
development or from snt over two

16:51.860 --> 16:53.749
applications , weapons systems to

16:53.749 --> 16:55.971
actually get them . Field it . And then

16:55.971 --> 16:58.082
you said that really , that's changed

16:58.082 --> 17:00.320
today is different , and we really are

17:00.510 --> 17:02.750
serious this time about getting these

17:02.750 --> 17:04.861
things to the warfighter and to do it

17:04.861 --> 17:08.680
quickly . What has changed and how ,

17:08.690 --> 17:10.912
practically speaking , is this going to

17:10.912 --> 17:12.801
be different ? So I think there's

17:12.801 --> 17:14.968
several things have changed the versus

17:15.020 --> 17:17.890
the personalities involved . Um uh , we

17:17.890 --> 17:19.946
have leadership now that understands

17:19.946 --> 17:21.779
the value and the impact of this

17:21.779 --> 17:24.490
technology . And although we had in the

17:24.490 --> 17:26.490
past some leaders who did recognise

17:26.490 --> 17:28.546
this , I think the consensus now the

17:28.546 --> 17:30.550
strong consensus is overwhelmingly

17:30.550 --> 17:32.661
supportive and understanding why this

17:32.661 --> 17:34.717
is an important technology . So that

17:34.717 --> 17:36.828
has changed . I think the other thing

17:36.828 --> 17:38.828
that has changed is our recognition

17:38.828 --> 17:40.994
that we are in a race . I , you know ,

17:40.994 --> 17:43.161
report that reporting that came out of

17:43.161 --> 17:45.161
the intelligence community starting

17:45.161 --> 17:47.200
really in the early 20 tens , but

17:47.400 --> 17:49.960
peaking in the mid 2010 . Um , let us

17:49.960 --> 17:52.071
all to realize that we were , in some

17:52.071 --> 17:54.127
cases , resting on our laurels while

17:54.127 --> 17:56.390
other people were not , um , there was

17:56.390 --> 17:58.334
an element of humors to it that we

17:58.334 --> 18:00.446
thought we were so far ahead . And we

18:00.446 --> 18:02.557
were We were the ones developing this

18:02.557 --> 18:02.390
technology that no one could possibly

18:02.390 --> 18:04.930
hope to catch up to us . And I think ,

18:04.940 --> 18:06.829
um , when when this story started

18:06.829 --> 18:08.551
getting getting out , we start

18:08.551 --> 18:10.730
understanding the level of investments

18:10.730 --> 18:12.841
overseas , especially in China . They

18:12.841 --> 18:14.952
haven't . They haven't been shy about

18:14.952 --> 18:17.008
it . You can go online . You can see

18:17.008 --> 18:19.174
YouTube videos out of China where they

18:19.174 --> 18:21.008
will show up the facilities that

18:21.008 --> 18:20.780
they've been building . You know , they

18:20.960 --> 18:23.071
did their their military parade where

18:23.071 --> 18:25.349
they're showing off their capabilities .

18:25.349 --> 18:27.349
So so that , I think , has been eye

18:27.349 --> 18:29.571
opening . And it has really changed the

18:29.571 --> 18:32.280
conversation . Yeah , um and , um and I

18:32.280 --> 18:34.502
would say to their , you know , there's

18:34.502 --> 18:36.502
a I think there's been a sea change

18:36.502 --> 18:38.613
politically . And how would you , the

18:38.613 --> 18:40.502
China , our relationship with the

18:40.502 --> 18:42.613
Chinese , how it's it's really been a

18:42.613 --> 18:44.280
policy of engagement now were

18:44.280 --> 18:46.336
understanding that , um , it is more

18:46.336 --> 18:48.502
perhaps adversarial than would be ? It

18:48.502 --> 18:50.558
wanted it to be over the many , many

18:50.558 --> 18:52.502
years , and so these these weapons

18:52.502 --> 18:54.502
systems are very problematic . I do

18:54.502 --> 18:56.336
want such I'm just a another , a

18:56.336 --> 18:58.447
different , more technical . He's , I

18:58.447 --> 19:00.780
think , would be useful for our viewers .

19:00.780 --> 19:02.724
The benefit for the United because

19:02.724 --> 19:04.780
we're still looking at what kinds of

19:04.780 --> 19:06.836
systems we're going t to develop and

19:06.836 --> 19:08.836
invest in . Um might have plenty of

19:08.836 --> 19:10.947
prototypes that don't never grow into

19:10.947 --> 19:13.058
more mature systems than that . We're

19:13.058 --> 19:12.580
trying to figure out what works best .

19:12.870 --> 19:14.481
Which ones fulfill different

19:14.481 --> 19:16.814
requirements that we that we still have .

19:17.060 --> 19:19.227
What is the difference between for the

19:19.227 --> 19:21.227
United States purposes ? What's the

19:21.227 --> 19:23.393
benefit of a hypersonic cruise missile

19:23.393 --> 19:25.282
versus a hypersonic boost ? Glide

19:25.282 --> 19:27.393
system , Right , So So you're exactly

19:27.393 --> 19:29.616
right that right now we've got a number

19:29.616 --> 19:31.671
of prototype programs and and I'd be

19:31.671 --> 19:31.650
surprised if each and every one of

19:31.650 --> 19:33.650
those prototype programs manifested

19:33.650 --> 19:35.539
itself finally , in a program , a

19:35.539 --> 19:38.640
record . Um , but I do generally

19:38.640 --> 19:40.751
categorised hyper sonics in those two

19:40.751 --> 19:42.973
systems . There the boost glide systems

19:42.973 --> 19:45.029
where you have a rocket based system

19:45.029 --> 19:47.251
that accelerates up to speed , and then

19:47.251 --> 19:49.418
what we call the air breathing systems

19:49.418 --> 19:51.529
where there is ah , essentially a jet

19:51.529 --> 19:53.696
engine , um , and and the way to think

19:53.696 --> 19:53.210
about is the following . All right , So ,

19:53.640 --> 19:56.910
um , a a rocket is a divisive carries

19:57.040 --> 19:59.610
both its fuel and it's oxidizer on

19:59.610 --> 20:01.721
board , right ? So in order to make a

20:01.721 --> 20:03.721
rocket work , you combined fuel and

20:03.721 --> 20:05.832
oxidizer . They combust , they burn ,

20:05.832 --> 20:07.999
they release energy . That energy goes

20:07.999 --> 20:10.166
into the exhaust products . That gives

20:10.166 --> 20:09.570
you an exhaust . Yet that gives you

20:09.570 --> 20:12.020
thrust that makes you go forward . A

20:12.020 --> 20:15.360
jet engine only has fuel on board . And

20:15.360 --> 20:18.550
then for the oxidizer it swallows air

20:18.760 --> 20:20.760
uses oxygen in the air to burn with

20:20.760 --> 20:23.090
fuel . So if I can swallow air , if I

20:23.300 --> 20:25.522
have an inlet hole in the front where I

20:25.522 --> 20:27.356
bring Aaron , that means I'm not

20:27.356 --> 20:29.300
carrying the oxygen with me . So I

20:29.300 --> 20:31.356
don't need the way to the few of the

20:31.356 --> 20:33.522
oxidizer . I don't need the way to the

20:33.522 --> 20:35.467
tanks to carry the oxidizer . That

20:35.467 --> 20:34.850
leads to a much more efficient

20:34.850 --> 20:36.739
propulsion system . It's just one

20:36.739 --> 20:38.906
example , you know . Ah , conventional

20:38.906 --> 20:41.072
airliners are obviously powered by jet

20:41.072 --> 20:43.294
engines . Jet engines have big inlets ,

20:43.294 --> 20:45.406
air comes in , and the option of that

20:45.406 --> 20:47.572
air burns with the jet fuel inside the

20:47.572 --> 20:49.739
combust er as opposed to a rocket like

20:49.739 --> 20:52.300
on the space shuttle or ah , an Atlas

20:52.300 --> 20:54.467
five . We're all both the fuel and the

20:54.467 --> 20:56.800
oxidizer is stored in tanks . All right ,

20:56.800 --> 20:58.633
so I think about the differences

20:58.633 --> 21:00.633
between those two systems . Rockets

21:00.633 --> 21:02.800
produce lots of thrust compared to the

21:02.800 --> 21:04.689
weight of the engine itself . Jet

21:04.689 --> 21:06.911
engines ? Not so much . But jet engines

21:06.911 --> 21:09.133
produced lots of thrust compared to the

21:09.133 --> 21:09.120
amount of weight of fuel they're

21:09.120 --> 21:11.730
consuming because they're not carrying

21:11.730 --> 21:13.841
that option with him . And that means

21:13.841 --> 21:16.008
you have no less . You're not carrying

21:16.008 --> 21:15.570
the way to the oxygen . You're not

21:15.570 --> 21:17.792
caring . Wayto thanks so it can lead to

21:17.792 --> 21:19.903
a more efficient design . If you want

21:19.903 --> 21:21.737
to travel a long distance in the

21:21.737 --> 21:23.681
atmosphere , you're obviously much

21:23.681 --> 21:25.792
better off with a jet engine . You're

21:25.792 --> 21:25.330
better off not trying to carry that

21:25.330 --> 21:27.441
option with you . You want to swallow

21:27.441 --> 21:29.663
it through an inlet . If you want to go

21:29.663 --> 21:31.552
into space , you obviously want a

21:31.552 --> 21:33.552
rocket because there's no oxygen in

21:33.552 --> 21:35.719
space , Right ? So those of the trades

21:35.719 --> 21:37.941
in the hypersonic realm we wind up kind

21:37.941 --> 21:39.997
of being on the boundary between air

21:39.997 --> 21:42.108
and space , and that's why we look at

21:42.108 --> 21:43.997
both systems . In the case of the

21:43.997 --> 21:46.052
rocket boost glide , we're investing

21:46.052 --> 21:48.219
all the energy in front . So we've got

21:48.219 --> 21:50.330
a rocket that burns fuel and oxidizer

21:50.330 --> 21:52.219
gets the system up to really fast

21:52.219 --> 21:54.386
speeds very quickly . And then a glide

21:54.386 --> 21:56.274
body weapon or some other systems

21:56.274 --> 21:58.219
separates and glides at hypersonic

21:58.219 --> 22:00.330
speed to the target , usually without

22:00.330 --> 22:02.552
any additional propulsion system . On a

22:02.552 --> 22:04.710
cruise missile side , we often get up

22:04.710 --> 22:06.766
to speed with a smaller rocket . But

22:06.766 --> 22:08.821
once it gets up the hypersonic speed

22:08.821 --> 22:10.932
the jet engine takes over and so it's

22:10.932 --> 22:13.154
continuing to provide thrust . Continue

22:13.154 --> 22:12.990
to power all through the atmosphere .

22:13.230 --> 22:15.452
Alright , what ? The difference is that

22:15.452 --> 22:17.452
in those technologies , well on the

22:17.452 --> 22:19.286
rocket boost glide , the biggest

22:19.286 --> 22:21.286
challenges I have toe overspeed the

22:21.286 --> 22:21.080
system , because I have to get up to a

22:21.080 --> 22:22.858
much higher speed , is I'm then

22:22.858 --> 22:25.080
bleeding off energy because I'm gliding

22:25.080 --> 22:27.247
the rest away . Down Haier speed means

22:27.247 --> 22:29.469
more heating . It means more stress for

22:29.469 --> 22:31.802
the materials on the air breathing site .

22:31.802 --> 22:33.469
For the jet engine side , the

22:33.469 --> 22:35.580
challenges are well , I need to build

22:35.580 --> 22:34.870
an engine . I need to build an engine

22:34.870 --> 22:37.148
which can swallow air through an inlet .

22:37.148 --> 22:39.259
I need to be able to inject fuel into

22:39.259 --> 22:41.481
that airstream , mixed it efficiently ,

22:41.481 --> 22:43.648
burning quickly and produce thrust out

22:43.648 --> 22:45.814
the back , and that's that's also very

22:45.814 --> 22:47.537
difficult to dio . But the air

22:47.537 --> 22:49.703
breathing system applies that energy ,

22:49.703 --> 22:51.926
if you will . It's constantly releasing

22:51.926 --> 22:51.650
that , and it's a more gradual release

22:51.650 --> 22:53.870
the energy . So if you look at the way

22:53.870 --> 22:55.703
those systems package , what you

22:55.703 --> 22:57.703
generally find is the air breathing

22:57.730 --> 22:59.508
systems , the everything cruise

22:59.508 --> 23:01.563
missiles package smaller . Are there

23:01.563 --> 23:03.786
more compact cause they're not carrying

23:03.786 --> 23:06.008
the option with that produces a smaller

23:06.008 --> 23:07.952
missile , so I get more of them on

23:07.952 --> 23:10.119
board , right ? They maybe don't go as

23:10.119 --> 23:12.230
far , but they've got these packaging

23:12.230 --> 23:14.230
advantages . The rocket boost glide

23:14.230 --> 23:16.286
systems . They go further , but they

23:16.286 --> 23:18.452
stress materials . They tend to stress

23:18.452 --> 23:20.619
the limits of our knowledge of how toe

23:20.619 --> 23:22.508
to construct these designs . Um ,

23:22.508 --> 23:24.563
everything systems a little bit less

23:24.563 --> 23:26.786
maneuverable because I'm worrying about

23:26.786 --> 23:26.640
the way the errors behaving as it goes

23:26.640 --> 23:28.640
in the front of the engine that the

23:28.640 --> 23:30.696
rocket boost system . Once it starts

23:30.696 --> 23:33.029
gliding , I can bank and dive and glide .

23:33.029 --> 23:32.920
I don't care about the state of the air

23:32.920 --> 23:35.050
coming in front . So as I like to

23:35.050 --> 23:37.217
emphasize , these systems really don't

23:37.217 --> 23:39.494
compete there , actually complimentary .

23:39.640 --> 23:41.640
We want both of these . We want the

23:41.640 --> 23:43.696
everything cruise missiles . But you

23:43.696 --> 23:45.584
also want the boost glide systems

23:45.584 --> 23:47.418
because they each have their own

23:47.418 --> 23:49.640
benefits , their own drawbacks and used

23:49.640 --> 23:51.862
in combination . I think of them really

23:51.862 --> 23:53.973
is a high low mix , very much like we

23:53.973 --> 23:53.720
have the high low mix and fighters . He

23:53.720 --> 23:56.400
had 15 in the F 16 . So I think we need

23:56.400 --> 23:58.289
the high , low mix and hypersonic

23:58.289 --> 24:00.400
between the boost gliders and the air

24:00.400 --> 24:03.350
breathers . That's great . Um , I

24:03.740 --> 24:07.030
you you talked to you about the need .

24:07.170 --> 24:09.392
This has been a theme from the Pentagon

24:09.392 --> 24:11.503
as we moved forward Spectra Esper has

24:11.503 --> 24:13.503
made these made this point over and

24:13.503 --> 24:13.220
over and over again that they need to

24:13.220 --> 24:16.990
go fast . And , um and

24:17.000 --> 24:19.222
you just said that we need to embrace ,

24:19.222 --> 24:21.930
uh , paraphrasing a higher degree of

24:21.940 --> 24:24.162
risk that there certainly rest . Forget

24:24.162 --> 24:26.218
it . We're not going to get it right

24:26.218 --> 24:28.273
right away , and we're going to have

24:28.273 --> 24:30.384
some kind of failures . But there's a

24:30.384 --> 24:30.190
difference . Doing good , there's good

24:30.190 --> 24:32.301
failures , and there's bad failures .

24:32.301 --> 24:34.301
And you didn't need to embrace this

24:34.301 --> 24:34.210
idea of having some good failures

24:34.210 --> 24:36.830
because we learn from them . Um , I

24:36.830 --> 24:39.110
want you to touch on that , and I also

24:39.110 --> 24:41.280
though it would be great then if you

24:41.280 --> 24:45.270
could think about going to that how How

24:45.270 --> 24:47.437
industry should be thinking about this

24:47.437 --> 24:49.603
Because you've talked about we need to

24:49.603 --> 24:51.548
go to scale . We need be producing

24:51.548 --> 24:51.320
these things that scale . But right now ,

24:51.330 --> 24:53.274
we still don't really know exactly

24:53.274 --> 24:55.497
where we're gonna You know what ? Which

24:55.497 --> 24:57.552
some of these systems we're gonna go

24:57.552 --> 24:57.450
with that becomes very difficult ,

24:57.450 --> 24:59.506
Especially as you think about supply

24:59.506 --> 25:01.506
chains and making sure that we have

25:01.506 --> 25:03.506
supply chains prepared to be ableto

25:03.506 --> 25:06.040
ramp up and produce that feel . So , uh ,

25:06.050 --> 25:08.900
so testing and embracing failure . And

25:08.900 --> 25:11.011
then how can we be preparing for this

25:11.011 --> 25:13.067
and how you're thinking about supply

25:13.067 --> 25:15.011
chains , right ? So you're exactly

25:15.011 --> 25:16.956
right that we need to be less risk

25:16.956 --> 25:19.178
averse , and that doesn't mean way seek

25:19.178 --> 25:21.233
to maximise risk . But it also means

25:21.233 --> 25:23.400
we're not afraid to take risks . We're

25:23.400 --> 25:25.511
not afraid to fail as long as they're

25:25.511 --> 25:27.567
what I term noble failures . Right ?

25:27.567 --> 25:26.750
There are dumb failures and noble

25:26.750 --> 25:28.694
failures . Noble failures are when

25:28.694 --> 25:30.694
something didn't work . But but you

25:30.694 --> 25:32.806
learned a lot , and it was an unknown

25:32.806 --> 25:34.806
that you've now . You've now , uh ,

25:34.806 --> 25:36.806
added information . You've got data

25:36.806 --> 25:39.028
that allows you to understand what went

25:39.028 --> 25:38.860
wrong . Thumb failures are when

25:38.860 --> 25:40.860
something fails , it really have no

25:40.860 --> 25:42.860
business failing . So let me let me

25:42.860 --> 25:45.027
give you an example of one of the best

25:45.027 --> 25:47.249
explanation . Second half , um , in the

25:47.249 --> 25:49.360
20 tens , the United States Air Force

25:49.360 --> 25:51.471
had a program which which I think has

25:51.471 --> 25:51.270
been one of our most successful

25:51.270 --> 25:54.030
hypersonic programs was called X 51 and

25:54.030 --> 25:55.919
X 51 did four flights . The first

25:55.919 --> 25:58.680
flight was mostly successful . Towards

25:58.680 --> 26:00.680
the end of the flight , there was a

26:00.680 --> 26:02.680
little bit of a burn through in the

26:02.680 --> 26:04.791
nozzle . Second flight failed , third

26:04.791 --> 26:06.902
flight failed . Four flight was fully

26:06.902 --> 26:06.690
successful . Now let's talk about that

26:06.690 --> 26:08.634
program , not tell you what we did

26:08.634 --> 26:10.746
right , but also tell you what we did

26:10.746 --> 26:12.801
wrong , all right , after that first

26:12.801 --> 26:14.801
flight or where mostly worked , the

26:14.801 --> 26:16.857
engine worked . We power the vehicle

26:16.857 --> 26:19.079
for most of its trajectory , but we had

26:19.079 --> 26:20.968
that failure in the end , to burn

26:20.968 --> 26:23.190
through , um , people front , frankly ,

26:23.190 --> 26:25.134
in a panic because we had set that

26:25.134 --> 26:27.790
program up with on Lee four plates . So

26:27.790 --> 26:29.734
we at first we just used the first

26:29.734 --> 26:31.790
flight up . All right . We had three

26:31.790 --> 26:33.901
left and there was a sense of Oh , my

26:33.901 --> 26:36.068
gosh , we need to know everything that

26:36.068 --> 26:38.179
went wrong because that second flight

26:38.179 --> 26:40.401
can't fail because then we'll only have

26:40.401 --> 26:42.457
two left . So we spent a really long

26:42.457 --> 26:42.220
time trying to figure out what went

26:42.220 --> 26:45.030
wrong . And Flight One side note , we

26:45.030 --> 26:47.252
kind of knew what went wrong and Flight

26:47.252 --> 26:49.252
one on the first day . I mean , you

26:49.252 --> 26:48.320
could look at the data . You could see

26:48.320 --> 26:50.153
exactly what would happen , what

26:50.153 --> 26:52.209
happened . But because we had so few

26:52.209 --> 26:54.431
flights in the program , we spent a lot

26:54.431 --> 26:56.653
of time figuring that we went to flight

26:56.653 --> 26:58.431
to Flight two . We took so long

26:58.431 --> 27:00.598
figuring out what went wrong and fight

27:00.598 --> 27:02.764
one . By the time we got the flight to

27:02.764 --> 27:04.764
the pilot , who'd flown the carrier

27:04.764 --> 27:06.820
aircraft that dropped the first x 51

27:06.820 --> 27:08.987
had retired out of the Air Force , the

27:08.987 --> 27:10.931
co pilot , how to be recalled from

27:10.931 --> 27:13.153
another duty station owner to fly the B

27:13.153 --> 27:12.970
52 mother craft that carried airplane

27:12.970 --> 27:15.650
so we had allows loss of expertise . Um ,

27:15.810 --> 27:17.720
about 70% of the ground crew that

27:17.720 --> 27:19.776
worked on the first flight of its 51

27:19.776 --> 27:21.720
was no longer there for the second

27:21.720 --> 27:23.831
flight . So now the second fight . We

27:23.831 --> 27:25.887
had a failure , and it was frankly ,

27:25.887 --> 27:25.500
was a noble failure . Something went

27:25.500 --> 27:27.722
wrong with publishing system that we we

27:27.722 --> 27:29.833
it's time . Didn't understand what we

27:29.833 --> 27:31.889
click Me quickly learned what went ,

27:31.889 --> 27:33.833
what went wrong . We geared up for

27:33.833 --> 27:36.000
Flight three . Took us a lot of time ,

27:36.000 --> 27:38.167
though , to study that we get to fight

27:38.167 --> 27:39.778
three . Flight three is a an

27:39.778 --> 27:41.889
embarrassing failure . Ah , Finn fell

27:41.889 --> 27:44.111
off the vehicle . That happens a lot in

27:44.111 --> 27:43.950
hypersonic testing . All right now , we

27:43.950 --> 27:46.800
had one flight left , and by gosh , we

27:46.800 --> 27:49.022
had people in the program saying What ?

27:49.022 --> 27:51.189
We can't fly that vehicle because what

27:51.189 --> 27:53.300
if it fails ? I've never had needs to

27:53.300 --> 27:55.522
realize the conversations like , Well ,

27:55.522 --> 27:57.467
if we don't , we pay for it . It's

27:57.467 --> 27:57.100
sitting in the hangar . Why wouldn't we

27:57.100 --> 27:59.211
fly it ? Well , but if we fly it , if

27:59.211 --> 28:01.489
it doesn't work , then we're done . Um ,

28:01.740 --> 28:03.851
we did finally fly it , but there was

28:03.851 --> 28:06.073
so much hand wringing there was so much

28:06.073 --> 28:07.962
worry about this about what would

28:07.962 --> 28:10.220
happen if and that kind of all

28:10.230 --> 28:12.397
illustrates the situation we've gotten

28:12.397 --> 28:14.508
ourselves into . No . Let me give the

28:14.508 --> 28:16.619
contrast . The 19 sixties NASA in the

28:16.619 --> 28:18.674
Air Force and the Navy had a program

28:18.674 --> 28:20.619
called X 15 . The X 15 resulted in

28:20.619 --> 28:22.841
three vehicles being built to are still

28:22.841 --> 28:25.063
around . One . Is the National Airspace

28:25.063 --> 28:27.008
Museum down in the mall ? Ah , the

28:27.008 --> 28:26.910
other is of the Air Force Museum in

28:26.910 --> 28:29.420
Dayton , Ohio . That's 15 program flew

28:29.430 --> 28:33.300
199 flights , roughly

28:33.300 --> 28:35.570
once every two weeks . When things went

28:35.570 --> 28:37.626
wrong , they figured out immediately

28:37.626 --> 28:39.681
what went wrong , and they got those

28:39.681 --> 28:41.903
vehicles back in the air . They had one

28:41.903 --> 28:41.710
case where a vehicle landed hard ,

28:41.710 --> 28:43.654
broken , half . That's a great who

28:43.654 --> 28:45.710
wanted to make one little bit longer

28:45.710 --> 28:47.599
anyway , all right , they weren't

28:47.599 --> 28:49.599
afraid of failure . They even had a

28:49.599 --> 28:51.710
tragedy tragedy in the program . They

28:51.710 --> 28:50.990
lost one of the vehicles . They lost

28:50.990 --> 28:53.390
the pilot . It didn't end the program ,

28:53.600 --> 28:55.711
right ? So that's kind of the mindset

28:55.711 --> 28:57.711
that we're trying to get into , all

28:57.711 --> 28:59.878
right . And part of that comes down to

28:59.878 --> 29:01.767
doing things , often flying often

29:01.767 --> 29:03.822
building programs so that when we're

29:03.822 --> 29:05.933
testing , we're not testing onesies .

29:05.933 --> 29:07.822
Twosies . We've got a robust test

29:07.822 --> 29:09.989
program , so we learn as we're doing ,

29:09.989 --> 29:11.989
we're not . We're not constantly re

29:11.989 --> 29:14.211
learning how to do what we used to know

29:14.211 --> 29:14.160
how to Dio , and that that , I think is

29:14.160 --> 29:16.271
is the secret , I think , is the path

29:16.271 --> 29:18.327
we're trying to get ourselves on . I

29:18.327 --> 29:20.438
would just have to somebody I used to

29:20.438 --> 29:22.604
work in the Congress for a congressman

29:22.604 --> 29:24.827
on the House Armed Services Committee ,

29:24.827 --> 29:26.993
and then the political environment has

29:26.993 --> 29:26.960
to be conducive for that kind of

29:26.960 --> 29:29.180
testing to we can't The Congress needs

29:29.180 --> 29:31.402
to kind of settle in and be patient and

29:31.402 --> 29:33.513
understand that there's testing . And

29:33.513 --> 29:35.791
there are some , uh , testing failures .

29:35.791 --> 29:37.902
They might be noble failures , and it

29:37.902 --> 29:40.069
doesn't mean that it's time to end the

29:40.069 --> 29:39.810
program or switch the program , or no

29:39.810 --> 29:42.410
longer where the idea that there's

29:42.410 --> 29:44.577
going to be , we're gonna have to have

29:44.577 --> 29:46.521
a higher tolerance , my bipartisan

29:46.690 --> 29:49.023
perspective , congressional perspective ,

29:49.023 --> 29:50.968
because there has to be a national

29:50.968 --> 29:52.968
commitment to making sure that this

29:52.968 --> 29:54.968
technology , um , is successful and

29:54.968 --> 29:57.190
then , you know , winds up in the hands

29:57.190 --> 30:00.780
of those out in the field , right ? You

30:00.780 --> 30:02.891
talk about the supply chain issued to

30:02.891 --> 30:04.780
and how we can be , how we can be

30:04.780 --> 30:06.891
preparing and thinking about this . I

30:06.891 --> 30:08.724
know it's It's a little bit of a

30:08.724 --> 30:10.891
dilemma right now because some of this

30:10.891 --> 30:10.720
stuff is still classified . We don't

30:10.720 --> 30:12.831
wanna give timelines because we don't

30:12.831 --> 30:14.887
want the adversary to Notre ones are

30:14.887 --> 30:17.053
What ? Do you know what we're favoring

30:17.053 --> 30:19.220
at this point ? But at the same time ,

30:19.220 --> 30:21.220
we can get costs down , too , if we

30:21.220 --> 30:23.442
have a long enough , the times a plan ,

30:23.442 --> 30:25.553
especially as he wants to ramp up and

30:25.553 --> 30:27.664
produced that scale as well . We have

30:27.664 --> 30:29.553
to have a robust industrial . I'm

30:29.553 --> 30:31.498
capability to be able to do that ,

30:31.498 --> 30:33.664
right ? So So I really appreciate your

30:33.664 --> 30:35.831
talking about industrial base and also

30:35.831 --> 30:35.010
about costs , cause I think you've hit

30:35.010 --> 30:37.232
about one of one of the key issues also

30:37.232 --> 30:39.566
in this technology area . Um , you know ,

30:39.566 --> 30:41.650
when When people ask me , why do we

30:41.650 --> 30:43.650
want hypersonic systems ? I tend to

30:43.650 --> 30:46.050
counter with the question Why wouldn't

30:46.050 --> 30:48.161
we want hypersonic systems ? And I'll

30:48.161 --> 30:50.328
start with the thought experiment if I

30:50.328 --> 30:52.550
could take an existing cruise missile .

30:52.550 --> 30:54.494
And if I could replace that cruise

30:54.494 --> 30:54.290
missile with a hypersonic system , so

30:54.290 --> 30:56.346
does everything the existence system

30:56.346 --> 30:58.810
does . But does it seven times faster .

30:59.340 --> 31:01.780
Well , why wouldn't I want that ? The

31:01.780 --> 31:03.724
answer is I might no want it if it

31:03.724 --> 31:05.780
doesn't completely replicate all the

31:05.780 --> 31:08.002
capabilities . For example , if I don't

31:08.002 --> 31:09.947
get the same range or there's some

31:09.947 --> 31:12.113
vulnerabilities , but I also might not

31:12.113 --> 31:14.280
want it if it's extremely expensive so

31:14.280 --> 31:16.447
that I can afford the weapon . So cost

31:16.447 --> 31:16.250
is a very important aspect of this .

31:16.250 --> 31:18.361
And I'm happy to say that a couple of

31:18.361 --> 31:20.361
our prototype efforts have a really

31:20.361 --> 31:22.528
strong focus on what the systems costs

31:22.528 --> 31:24.750
will be . Especially the DARPA programs

31:24.750 --> 31:26.750
right now have have costs as one of

31:26.750 --> 31:28.861
their metrics , right ? So So we have

31:28.861 --> 31:30.972
to pay attention that I personally is

31:30.972 --> 31:33.083
inside . By the way , I think it is a

31:33.083 --> 31:35.250
miss number . That hyper son existence

31:35.250 --> 31:37.306
immediately translate into expensive

31:37.306 --> 31:37.040
systems . Take the example of a

31:37.040 --> 31:38.873
scramjet powered , air breathing

31:38.873 --> 31:40.984
hypersonic cruise missile . Well , is

31:40.984 --> 31:43.318
pushing state of the art in development .

31:43.318 --> 31:45.429
But ah , hypersonic jet engine . What

31:45.429 --> 31:47.484
we call a scramjet engine supersonic

31:47.484 --> 31:49.484
combusting ramjet is in principle a

31:49.484 --> 31:51.540
very simple engine . It doesn't have

31:51.540 --> 31:53.540
very many moving parts . It doesn't

31:53.540 --> 31:52.930
have turbines , it doesn't have

31:52.930 --> 31:54.490
compressors . So the actual

31:54.490 --> 31:56.730
manufacturing shouldn't be that much

31:56.730 --> 31:58.730
more expensive . That could be less

31:58.730 --> 32:00.341
expensive than a lower speed

32:00.341 --> 32:02.174
alternative . So , yeah , you're

32:02.174 --> 32:04.341
investing a front in the development .

32:04.341 --> 32:06.341
But the per unit cost should not be

32:06.341 --> 32:08.563
astronomical , as as some folks I think

32:08.563 --> 32:10.841
mistakenly believes would be necessary .

32:10.841 --> 32:12.897
Be true for hypersonic systems . All

32:12.897 --> 32:14.841
right , so with that focus on cost

32:14.841 --> 32:17.008
exactly right , we need to be focusing

32:17.008 --> 32:16.190
on supply chain . There's several

32:16.190 --> 32:18.301
elements of that . One is . Make sure

32:18.301 --> 32:20.301
we've got the supply chain that can

32:20.301 --> 32:22.860
produce at scale and at at at

32:22.870 --> 32:26.080
reasonable cost , but also to make sure

32:26.080 --> 32:28.191
that we don't have vulnerabilities in

32:28.191 --> 32:30.358
that supply chain that we don't have .

32:30.358 --> 32:32.580
Pure competitors who are looking at key

32:32.580 --> 32:34.747
aspects of that supply chain trying to

32:34.747 --> 32:36.636
get into that supply chain may be

32:36.636 --> 32:38.913
tapping into , ah , advanced materials ,

32:38.913 --> 32:40.913
high temperature materials that are

32:40.913 --> 32:43.136
essential to the creation of hypersonic

32:43.136 --> 32:45.302
systems . One of the things that we're

32:45.302 --> 32:47.191
trying to do in our office is the

32:47.191 --> 32:49.330
single to industry that that , uh ,

32:49.340 --> 32:51.340
that we need them to step up to the

32:51.340 --> 32:53.451
plate that this Israel that is coming

32:53.451 --> 32:55.284
from the secretary on down , the

32:55.284 --> 32:57.229
secretary that deputy the chairman

32:57.229 --> 32:59.229
really the deal . The leadership is

32:59.229 --> 33:01.229
saying this is a technology that we

33:01.229 --> 33:03.340
understand is essential to the modern

33:03.340 --> 33:06.300
battlefield , and we're communicating

33:06.300 --> 33:10.000
that in basically various ways . But

33:10.010 --> 33:12.177
my my boss Mike Griffin has been , has

33:12.177 --> 33:14.510
been pretty public and telling industry ,

33:14.510 --> 33:16.510
We need you to understand that this

33:16.510 --> 33:18.621
Israel we need you to to to plan your

33:18.621 --> 33:20.788
investments accordingly . And it's not

33:20.788 --> 33:22.732
just the primes , but it's looking

33:22.732 --> 33:24.899
further down in the supply chain , and

33:24.899 --> 33:27.121
I'm actually happy to report that we've

33:27.121 --> 33:29.399
seen the primes really step up to that .

33:29.399 --> 33:31.566
Several of the major aerospace defence

33:31.566 --> 33:33.677
companies have have been looking down

33:33.677 --> 33:35.843
their supply chain looking at how they

33:35.843 --> 33:35.340
make the supply chain more robust .

33:35.510 --> 33:37.566
Have been working with their various

33:37.566 --> 33:40.240
suppliers to make sure that when when

33:40.240 --> 33:43.220
we give that call that that that we'll

33:43.220 --> 33:46.520
have the supply chain available in our

33:46.520 --> 33:48.631
remaining time , I want to talk about

33:48.631 --> 33:51.700
hypersonic defense . Um , if you if you

33:51.700 --> 33:54.930
could answer the question of how we're

33:54.930 --> 33:57.770
prioritizing offense versus defense and

33:57.770 --> 33:59.992
for me , for my perspective , I've been

33:59.992 --> 34:02.214
making the argument for a long time now

34:02.214 --> 34:04.214
that we have to have defense . That

34:04.214 --> 34:06.381
offense is not defense audiences often

34:06.381 --> 34:08.548
defense's defense , and it's important

34:08.548 --> 34:10.780
that we do have active defences against

34:10.780 --> 34:13.002
what are your competitors have in these

34:13.002 --> 34:16.510
highly contested height , height areas .

34:16.510 --> 34:19.640
I like contested areas and in what

34:19.640 --> 34:23.100
we're doing as a department to to

34:23.100 --> 34:26.700
invest in things like H BTS says the

34:27.710 --> 34:30.070
hypersonic and ballistic track ings

34:30.120 --> 34:33.210
stay sense sensor program . Why we have

34:33.210 --> 34:35.488
to have that . And you touched on that .

34:35.488 --> 34:37.710
You talked about how there these things

34:37.710 --> 34:39.932
are hard to see , um , in their hard to

34:39.932 --> 34:39.420
see and in the heart of track . And if

34:39.420 --> 34:41.364
you can't see him in track and you

34:41.364 --> 34:43.476
can't hit him , there's also value in

34:43.476 --> 34:45.587
being able to Steve them attractive ,

34:45.587 --> 34:47.642
even if you can't get them . But you

34:47.642 --> 34:49.753
are able to see them and track them ,

34:49.753 --> 34:51.698
at least initially . So talk to us

34:51.698 --> 34:53.531
about the importance of having a

34:53.531 --> 34:55.698
defense of capability , why it is so ,

34:55.698 --> 34:58.110
so important and what we're doing to

34:58.110 --> 35:00.830
invest in the kinds of of invest of

35:00.840 --> 35:03.062
technologies that we need to be able to

35:03.062 --> 35:05.340
have some kind of active defense . Yes ,

35:05.340 --> 35:07.229
that we don't need to have a 100%

35:07.229 --> 35:09.340
defense . We're not trying to be able

35:09.340 --> 35:11.396
to intercept every single hypersonic

35:11.396 --> 35:13.562
weapons system that exists , but we do

35:13.562 --> 35:15.451
need to have have some incredible

35:15.451 --> 35:17.507
defense against these things for our

35:17.507 --> 35:19.229
most critical , uh , bases and

35:19.229 --> 35:21.396
strategic interests in these regions ,

35:21.396 --> 35:23.173
right or so Rebecca , Your your

35:23.173 --> 35:25.396
question actually said it better than I

35:25.396 --> 35:27.618
think I could in any answer that I give

35:27.618 --> 35:29.562
you . Um , so So , um , you know ,

35:29.562 --> 35:31.673
hypersonic . I said hyper . Sonics is

35:31.673 --> 35:33.562
very difficult to stop . It's not

35:33.562 --> 35:33.450
impossible stuff . We know there are

35:33.450 --> 35:35.617
various technologies , various options

35:35.617 --> 35:37.783
that are available Teoh interfere with

35:37.783 --> 35:39.950
the operation of a hypersonic system .

35:39.950 --> 35:41.950
Um , and we've got efforts underway

35:41.950 --> 35:44.890
examining that . But as you correctly

35:44.890 --> 35:47.220
point out , the first step in stopping

35:47.220 --> 35:49.400
it is detecting it . And you mentioned

35:49.410 --> 35:51.260
the efforts underway with Space

35:51.260 --> 35:53.204
Development Agency Missile Defense

35:53.204 --> 35:55.820
Agency were convinced that the best way

35:55.820 --> 35:58.160
to do that is from is from space , and

35:58.160 --> 35:59.880
it requires a proliferated

35:59.880 --> 36:01.880
constellation system that allows to

36:01.880 --> 36:03.991
detect these things . Um , you know ,

36:03.991 --> 36:06.910
defense will be 100% . Um , we do

36:06.910 --> 36:08.743
believe that eventually the best

36:08.743 --> 36:10.799
defense will be , ah , layer defense

36:10.799 --> 36:12.521
with with multiple aspects and

36:12.730 --> 36:14.952
hypersonic says many things . It's it's

36:14.960 --> 36:16.627
it's long range systems , its

36:16.627 --> 36:18.849
intermediate range systems , its rocket

36:18.849 --> 36:21.071
boost , fly systems , its air breathing

36:21.071 --> 36:23.182
systems . Each of those would require

36:23.182 --> 36:24.960
ah , particular pick particular

36:24.960 --> 36:26.960
response . But But in the end , you

36:26.960 --> 36:28.738
know , I draw an analogy to the

36:28.738 --> 36:30.849
kamikaze waves that we faced in World

36:30.849 --> 36:32.627
War Two , the way we eventually

36:32.627 --> 36:34.849
defeated them , I was with with a layer

36:34.849 --> 36:37.071
defense . And what started out is as an

36:37.071 --> 36:39.182
unstoppable problem became a tragical

36:39.182 --> 36:41.460
problem . When once we understood that ,

36:41.460 --> 36:43.682
um , if you look at the portfolio right

36:43.682 --> 36:45.516
now , the balance is clearly tip

36:45.516 --> 36:47.849
towards offensive investments right now .

36:47.849 --> 36:49.960
And we're pushing very , very hard in

36:49.960 --> 36:52.127
our office to emphasize the importance

36:52.127 --> 36:54.293
of of defense . I do think offense and

36:54.293 --> 36:56.293
defense go hand in hand and that in

36:56.293 --> 36:58.460
order to in order to understand how to

36:58.460 --> 36:58.040
defend against these systems , you have

36:58.040 --> 37:00.207
to understand what goes into designing

37:00.207 --> 37:02.151
them if you need to understand the

37:02.151 --> 37:04.318
offensive technology in order to get a

37:04.318 --> 37:06.484
handle on the ways that you would stop

37:06.484 --> 37:08.596
them and defend against them , I also

37:08.596 --> 37:08.250
think that there is a deterrent element

37:08.250 --> 37:10.417
to it . You know , you may not be able

37:10.417 --> 37:12.528
to stop it , but if you know where it

37:12.528 --> 37:14.750
came from and if you can respond on the

37:14.750 --> 37:16.639
time scales that they're using to

37:16.639 --> 37:18.861
attack you , then it gives you , ah , a

37:18.861 --> 37:20.806
turn capability . They may get the

37:20.806 --> 37:22.806
first shot in , but if you can make

37:22.806 --> 37:24.750
sure they don't get the 2nd 3rd or

37:24.750 --> 37:26.694
fourth shot in then then that that

37:26.694 --> 37:28.680
could be a powerful defensive

37:28.680 --> 37:32.400
capability in and of itself . Um , you

37:32.400 --> 37:35.470
know , I I think I can tell you that

37:35.470 --> 37:37.414
we're seeing a significant ramp up

37:37.414 --> 37:39.581
right now in our in our efforts on the

37:39.581 --> 37:41.692
defensive side that the folks who are

37:41.692 --> 37:43.914
working on defense are working hand and

37:43.914 --> 37:46.137
glove with . The people were developing

37:46.137 --> 37:48.248
the offensive capabilities . And , um

37:48.248 --> 37:50.414
and it's an area , though , that we're

37:50.414 --> 37:50.200
continuing to focus on and investing .

37:52.350 --> 37:54.870
How are our shooters ? How are our

37:54.870 --> 37:56.703
current interceptors that we are

37:56.703 --> 37:59.190
current systems that we have today ? Um ,

37:59.200 --> 38:02.280
how are they as being able to interest

38:02.280 --> 38:04.340
at some of these more sophisticated

38:04.340 --> 38:06.118
threats that are no longer just

38:06.118 --> 38:07.896
predictably ballistic and their

38:07.896 --> 38:10.030
trajectories ? Because there's done ,

38:10.040 --> 38:12.240
we're some people try to make the case

38:12.240 --> 38:14.407
that you have . Some of these regional

38:14.407 --> 38:16.573
systems were have it . If they if they

38:16.573 --> 38:18.684
simply had their network better , and

38:18.684 --> 38:18.390
if they were able to cooperate better

38:18.390 --> 38:20.612
that they would actually have some kind

38:20.612 --> 38:22.779
of defense against hypersonic threat .

38:22.779 --> 38:24.810
What was your sense of that ? So so

38:24.810 --> 38:26.977
some of our existing systems have have

38:26.977 --> 38:29.199
some some capabilities that could bring

38:29.199 --> 38:31.310
that you could bring to bear , but it

38:31.310 --> 38:31.300
really depends on what you're going

38:31.300 --> 38:34.330
against , right ? So as just one

38:34.330 --> 38:36.497
measure , here's a good technical rule

38:36.497 --> 38:38.870
of thumb . If you're trying to stop an

38:38.880 --> 38:41.380
incoming weapons , then you're

38:41.380 --> 38:43.480
maneuverability has to have roughly

38:43.480 --> 38:45.720
three times the acceleration capability

38:46.080 --> 38:48.920
as the thing you're trying to stop . So

38:48.930 --> 38:50.930
if the incoming weapon can maneuver

38:50.930 --> 38:53.100
with 15 G's , then you have to be able

38:53.100 --> 38:55.960
to maneuver at 45 G's . That's really

38:55.960 --> 38:58.127
tough . It's not impossible , but it's

38:58.127 --> 39:00.349
tough . So that's one of the challenges

39:00.349 --> 39:02.680
that we've that we have in addressing

39:02.680 --> 39:05.260
this threat . There are other systems

39:05.260 --> 39:07.371
that you might bring about . Directed

39:07.371 --> 39:09.538
energy , for example , is a technology

39:09.538 --> 39:11.704
that could have important applications

39:11.704 --> 39:13.871
in defending against hypersonic . Um ,

39:13.871 --> 39:15.982
still capability is being developed .

39:15.982 --> 39:17.871
We've seen tremendous advances in

39:17.871 --> 39:20.690
recent years . Um , um , we're looking

39:20.690 --> 39:22.912
at systems that , if not existing today

39:22.912 --> 39:24.968
will be will be in place very soon .

39:24.968 --> 39:27.190
That may have some capabilities against

39:27.190 --> 39:29.246
these threats , but , you know , I I

39:29.246 --> 39:31.357
guess I put it in the category , work

39:31.357 --> 39:33.610
in progress and and and and and limited

39:33.620 --> 39:35.842
in details that I can offer limited and

39:35.842 --> 39:37.842
exactly what I can say no . I think

39:37.842 --> 39:40.064
that's great . I think it's important .

39:40.064 --> 39:42.120
Just a foot stomp the point that you

39:42.120 --> 39:41.840
just made previously , though , that

39:41.850 --> 39:43.961
even having the ability to have birth

39:43.961 --> 39:46.017
to death tracking , which is what HB

39:46.017 --> 39:48.430
TSS would give us in the context of the

39:48.430 --> 39:50.500
hypersonic threat and that in and of

39:50.500 --> 39:52.920
itself would be a dramatic advantage

39:52.920 --> 39:55.300
for the United States and would bolster

39:55.300 --> 39:57.880
our deterrent effect . Because all of

39:57.880 --> 40:00.102
this is meant not toe hopefully fight a

40:00.102 --> 40:03.290
war with China , but to deter one . And

40:03.290 --> 40:05.560
so we're trying to have trying to

40:05.560 --> 40:07.449
present multiple dilemmas for the

40:07.449 --> 40:10.130
adversary . Impose costs on them is

40:10.130 --> 40:12.297
that they're busy trying to figure out

40:12.297 --> 40:15.720
better ways to , um to gain the

40:15.730 --> 40:17.619
dominant position over the United

40:17.619 --> 40:19.286
States in the Indo Pacific in

40:19.286 --> 40:21.508
particular . Well , if I could just , I

40:21.508 --> 40:23.730
want it just end with the last point of

40:23.730 --> 40:25.674
Giger thoughts on You know , Advil

40:25.674 --> 40:27.341
Davidson , I think , has been

40:27.341 --> 40:29.508
incredibly articulate and staying back

40:29.508 --> 40:31.619
to your theme about the importance of

40:31.619 --> 40:33.674
testing , and you gave that that the

40:33.674 --> 40:35.730
example of the testing program where

40:35.730 --> 40:37.952
there's hundreds of tests that also has

40:37.952 --> 40:39.508
deterrent effect because it

40:39.508 --> 40:41.619
communicates to our adversaries . The

40:41.619 --> 40:41.190
political will we have to get this

40:41.190 --> 40:43.301
right . And so sometimes , you know ,

40:43.301 --> 40:45.170
we've been , you know , kind of

40:45.170 --> 40:47.490
secretive and afraid that if we test

40:47.500 --> 40:49.722
and there is a failure , that that will

40:49.722 --> 40:51.778
make us look bad or it will show the

40:51.778 --> 40:53.444
enemy that we don't have this

40:53.444 --> 40:55.444
capability . But in fact , if we're

40:55.444 --> 40:57.667
going fast and demonstrating that we do

40:57.667 --> 40:59.722
have the will to get this done , you

40:59.722 --> 41:01.889
can actually have a positive effect in

41:01.889 --> 41:03.833
bolstering the credibility of your

41:03.833 --> 41:05.833
deterrence . They were going to get

41:05.833 --> 41:05.500
this right . And if you could comment

41:05.500 --> 41:07.722
on that and then just give us some sort

41:07.722 --> 41:09.833
of timeline . Where do you expect the

41:09.833 --> 41:11.778
United States to pull ahead ? Um ,

41:11.778 --> 41:13.944
against are your competitors in this ?

41:13.944 --> 41:16.670
So So you know , our competitors should

41:16.670 --> 41:19.730
have no doubt that , um ,

41:20.310 --> 41:22.680
we are moving out on a very big way in

41:22.680 --> 41:24.736
this technology area . Um , and they

41:24.736 --> 41:26.791
should not be mistaken to think that

41:26.791 --> 41:29.013
they've got a technological advantage ,

41:29.013 --> 41:31.236
that we we we will be unable to counter

41:31.236 --> 41:33.458
eso . So I appreciate your making those

41:33.458 --> 41:35.569
points . Um , were so so We do have a

41:35.569 --> 41:37.750
very , very aggressive program , and

41:37.750 --> 41:40.110
it's it cuts across the services . So

41:40.110 --> 41:42.110
you've got Army . You've got Navy .

41:42.110 --> 41:44.380
You've got Air Force . Um , all moving

41:44.380 --> 41:46.547
ever aggressively working very hand in

41:46.547 --> 41:48.713
glove with Darboe . We've got multiple

41:48.713 --> 41:50.658
programs at DARPA that are feeding

41:50.658 --> 41:52.713
directly into those programs in ways

41:52.713 --> 41:54.769
that that , frankly , it's it's it's

41:54.769 --> 41:56.991
It's amazing how well , all those those

41:56.991 --> 41:59.213
those programs were integrated , that's

41:59.213 --> 42:01.269
across the rocket boost glide across

42:01.269 --> 42:03.436
the air breeding . Um , our goal is to

42:03.436 --> 42:05.547
deliver what we say deliver its scale

42:05.547 --> 42:07.910
by the mid 2020 . And , um , you know ,

42:07.910 --> 42:10.077
obviously we're a little bit bigger on

42:10.077 --> 42:12.410
our dates Are competitors could do math .

42:12.410 --> 42:14.680
They can add up numbers . Um , but we

42:14.690 --> 42:16.750
were looking at moving beyond beyond

42:16.750 --> 42:19.290
the prototype stage . Certainly by the

42:19.290 --> 42:22.420
second half of this decade , Um ,

42:23.000 --> 42:25.167
they're a couple elements that what is

42:25.167 --> 42:27.580
well , we'll see a vastly increased

42:27.580 --> 42:29.691
rate of testing , and that's just not

42:29.691 --> 42:31.747
just we've been testing a lot of the

42:31.747 --> 42:33.524
ground . You're gonna see a big

42:33.524 --> 42:33.440
increase in the rate of flight testing ,

42:33.440 --> 42:35.607
getting back to the earlier point that

42:35.607 --> 42:37.718
we need to fly early . We need to fly

42:37.718 --> 42:39.940
often . We need to to become proficient

42:39.940 --> 42:42.560
at that part of the technology . And so

42:42.560 --> 42:44.727
we're looking in the next four years .

42:44.727 --> 42:46.616
We're looking up the 40 different

42:46.616 --> 42:48.838
flight tests of various systems to help

42:48.838 --> 42:51.310
bring them to maturity . Um , same time

42:51.310 --> 42:53.532
were , you know , reinvesting in ground

42:53.532 --> 42:55.754
test facilities . You see , significant

42:55.754 --> 42:57.810
testing , evaluation facility , uh ,

42:57.810 --> 42:59.754
capabilities are ramping up in the

42:59.754 --> 43:01.810
United States . You know , it's it's

43:01.990 --> 43:04.212
it's really across the board across the

43:04.212 --> 43:06.157
department . Um , are are ever his

43:06.157 --> 43:08.268
adversaries and potential competitors

43:08.268 --> 43:10.870
should be under No , no mistake . That

43:10.880 --> 43:12.970
that were We're we're meeting the

43:12.970 --> 43:15.810
challenge in this area , and I think

43:15.810 --> 43:18.580
that that also just , you know , makes

43:18.580 --> 43:20.691
the point very , very powerfully that

43:20.691 --> 43:23.320
that we need to maintain a bipartisan

43:23.320 --> 43:25.510
consensus from policymakers . This is

43:25.510 --> 43:27.788
gonna go . This is gonna be , you know ,

43:27.788 --> 43:29.954
several years into the future . And we

43:29.954 --> 43:32.066
need t carry on this momentum that we

43:32.066 --> 43:34.177
have a country . So to make sure that

43:34.177 --> 43:36.490
we're back and competing with major

43:36.490 --> 43:38.601
power competition , that's that's the

43:38.601 --> 43:40.601
challenge of our day . Thank you so

43:40.601 --> 43:42.630
much . Talk to Lewis for your your

43:42.770 --> 43:45.160
expertise . Your service weapon . Thank

43:45.160 --> 43:47.104
you so much . I really enjoyed the

43:47.104 --> 43:47.920
conversation . Thanks .

