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“We came up with a plan to avoid Irma by using Cuba and Haiti as a shield and to get the aircraft off to respond as quickly as possible,” said Aerographer’s Mate 2nd Class Jason Fisher, assigned to Strike Group Oceanography Team. “The biggest part of the plan was to make sure we could still conduct the mission while avoiding the worst of the weather.”
The team developed storm avoidance and on station plans throughout the mission and presented the best possible plan to senior leadership. A task, which takes professional expertise and old-fashioned experience to complete according to Geis.
“When you talk about weather forecasting, you are really limited by the technology,” said Geis. “We use models to predict our weather. But our models are only as good as the information that goes into them and we cannot perfectly portray a current state of environment.”
Prior to the formation of Maria, the team gave an advanced five-day forecast of the storm before it made landfall in Puerto Rico.
“Given today’s technology, there is good confidence in a three-day forecast, but normally outside of that, confidence decreases given the variability of the atmosphere and the state of modeling,” Geis said. “However, the team felt confident in their analysis and was able to provide the admiral the five-day advance notice so he could reconstitute his forces and get everyone safely back on the ship.”
Geis also highlighted benefits of having a team aboard a ship versus on shore.
“The major benefit is the face to face communication between the team and the chain of command and the capability to explain the findings behind their assessments in person,” Geis said. “Another benefit is the timeliness of information. We are able to give reports to the chain faster as new information became available.”
Geis said the team did nearly triple the amount of work they would do on a standard seven-month deployment. He said since Aug. 31, they have made a total of 2,608 observations, averaging more than 24 per day; not just for Kearsarge but for the citizens of Puerto Rico when their forecasting equipment failed due to Maria.
Additionally, Geis said that the team has delivered 2,555 products, to include forecasts for Kearsarge, Oak Hill and Comfort, tidal predictions, five-day impacts, environmental information, and more. They conducted a total of 880 briefs, averaging 15 to 20 per day.
“This mission was an incredible experience,” Fisher said. “I have tropical cyclone forecasting experience, but the amount of work put into this mission was incredible and it was due to the great team we have as well as the team effort throughout the ship.”
The Department of Defense is supporting the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the lead federal agency, in helping those affected by hurricanes Irma and Maria to minimize suffering and is one component of the overall whole-of-government response effort.
For more information, visit www.navy.mil, www.facebook.com/usnavy, or www.twitter.com/usnavy.
For more news from USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), visit www.navy.mil/local/lhd3/.
| Date Taken: | 11.04.2017 |
| Date Posted: | 11.08.2017 10:37 |
| Story ID: | 254593 |
| Location: | NORFOLK, VA, US |
| Web Views: | 31 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
This work, Kearsarge Weather Team Provides Crucial Support During Humanitarian Mission, by PO2 Kaitlyn Eads, identified by DVIDS, must comply with the restrictions shown on https://www.dvidshub.net/about/copyright.
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