Big Data to Forecast Threats Before They Happen

Courtesy Photo | DTRA is investing in extensible technologies with purpose and focus. This graphic was provided by Dr. Brian Pate, JSTO.  

FORT BELVOIR, VA, UNITED STATES

05.24.2016

Courtesy Story

Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Chemical and Biological Technologies Department

Fort Belvoir, Va. In a world of uncertain futures, with annual budget cuts looming and warfighter safety at risk because of evolving threats, scientists at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Joint Science and Technology Office are learning how to do more with less. Dr. Brian Pate of DTRA is leveraging existing resources to increase data-driven approaches to technology and global threat forecasting.

Working with key stakeholders from across the national security community, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Homeland Security, Dr. Pate serves an instrumental role in the Technology Watch and Horizon Scanning (TW/HS) Community of Practice (CoP). The CoP seeks a data-driven approach to technology and forecasting global threats.

This group will leverage resources from each agency to increase coordination to achieve improved outcomes with constrained resources. Given the central role of DTRA in countering weapons of mass destruction, it is important to recognize the agency’s role as well as current programmatic activities as they pertain to TW/HS.

The third biannual meeting of the TW/HS CoP, co-led by Dr. Pate, included a keynote address by Dr. Patrick Carrick, Director of Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency; remarks from Allison Curran of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and a presentation on international activities in technology and forecasting. Members of the TW/HS CoP will reach a consensus on metrics and standards, the decision landscape/taxonomy, and a plan for addressing data challenges in a manner coordinated across the national security community.

In addition to the CoP, Dr. Pate advocates for key DTRA projects in the threat watch and scanning arena. Recently he presented at the annual “Science of Science” international workshop in Washington D.C., which draws data and library scientists from across the world. Dr. Pate emphasized DTRA’s focus on understanding and predicting events of low probability and high consequence, countering threats as far “upstream” as possible by leveraging commercial innovation, global partnerships and interagency efforts.

The DTRA Biosurveillance Ecosystem, a cloud-based design that fuses data tools and users in a social, self-sustaining web capability to enable earlier awareness of potential disease outbreaks, demonstrates their data-driven decision making toolset. Also, the new wearable exposure monitors program highlights DTRA’s data-driven approach to increase warfighter protection.

The effort will alert warfighters that they have been exposed to a threat and need to seek medical treatment well before disruptive, and potentially deadly, symptoms manifest. Dr. Pate is managing several additional efforts in data technology that are focused on algorithm development to provide early warning of exposure to chemical and biological weapons, leveraging physiological changes and molecular biomarkers which may be monitored in a minimally invasive manner.

Additional efforts to anticipate potential new WMD threats include DTRA’s technology forecasting pilot study and discovery methodologies assessment, led by the DTRA Chief Scientist Office. These activities resulted in the binning of discovery methodologies into those that are either focused or undefined with respect to imposed technological constraints, and either expert-driven or data-driven with respect to the discovery methods.

DTRA is seeking novel methodologies and approaches (capable of operating in both unclassified and classified domains) that may be applied to the discovery and identification of emerging and disruptive technologies. This technology forecasting strategic initiative aims to integrate activities, align findings, share knowledge and foster discovery methodologies which are increasingly data-driven.

This strategic initiative looks across a broader range of potential technologies, with the goal of developing a DTRA capability to anticipate technology-driven emerging and disruptive threats.

Overall, DTRA’s activities foster an increasingly data-driven approach to technology and threat assessment forecasting. By employing an increasingly broad aperture, DoD leadership is better equipped to enable, increase, develop and sustain weapons of mass destruction countermeasure capabilities in a technologically dynamic and challenging environment.

By providing new capabilities and developing innovative emerging technologies, combined with overarching interagency efforts, DTRA and JSTO assess the threat landscape and protect the warfighter through affordable programs and data-driven forecasting.

POC: Dr. Brian Pate; [e-mail]

• Date Taken: 05.24.2016
• Date Posted: 05.24.2016 10:06
• Story ID: 198890
• Location: FORT BELVOIR, VA, US