DTRA: Social behavior modeling system can help response planning before catastrophe strikes

Photo By Brian Dietrick | Todd Hann of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Technical Reach-back Division, briefs staff planners of Joint Task Force Civil Support on the Comprehensive National Incident Management System (CNIMS) during a visit to Mullan Hall, Fort Eustis, Va., Feb. 25, 2013. CNIMS is a developmental computing platform used to graphically calculate and synchronize planning efforts in anticipation of catastrophic natural or man-made disasters in the U.S., such as a hurricane or nuclear detonation. CNIMS provides a simulation system that can allow federal agencies – like JTF-CS – to make more accurate plans that help save lives and respond more efficiently by playing out various scenarios before an event occurs. (Official DOD photo by Deveney Wall)  

FORT EUSTIS, VA, UNITED STATES

03.07.2013

Story by Deveney Wall 

Joint Task Force Civil Support

FORT EUSTIS, Va. – The Defense Threat Reduction Agency introduced a social behavior modeling system that may make Joint Task Force Civil Support’s response to a natural or man-made disaster more efficient.

Members of DTRA visited JTF-CS last week to discuss how the Comprehensive National Incident Management System – or “CNIMS” - can assist with planning efforts to “reduce, eliminate, counter, and mitigate” the effects of threats within the United States.

The system, which is a Virginia Tech research program, uses a collection of interoperable simulations of societal infrastructures, coupled with individual-based social networks, to simulate up to 300 million individuals, 100 million locations, and temporal scale of minutes and a spatial scale of a few meters. The platform can calculate behaviors down to the individual person, using computer avatars to represent people, and adds any social behavior that is expected to take place during a catastrophic event. Factors that play into the avatars’ (a computer representation of the people) behaviors include marital/family status and daily routines.

Todd Hann, of DTRA’s Technical Reach-back Division, briefed JTF-CS staff planners on CNIMS, a developmental computing platform used by both governmental and non-governmental agencies to graphically calculate and synchronize planning efforts in anticipation of catastrophic natural or man-made disaster in the U.S., such as a hurricane or nuclear detonation.

“Avatars will seek shelter, panic, aide, travel to family to ‘reconstitute household,’” said Hann. “The system can portray the social ‘behavior state’ and ‘health state’ of the synthetic population. The location of the avatars is influenced by the state of power (availability), transportation and communication systems.”

CNIMS has the potential to support JTF-CS planning by providing a means of evaluation of would-be responses actions, and displaying planning results graphically, according to Hann. Questions can be investigated through multiple graphical simulations, showing where people might go following a disaster, what the impact to roads may be, and even show what resources may be available or limited for responders.

“We use this system to measure possible outcomes by including what motivates people during catastrophes,” said Hann.

JTF-CS provides command and control of 5,200 federal military forces—known as the Defense CBRN Response Force—located at more than 36 locations throughout the U.S. Most recently, the Fort Eustis-based joint task force supported federal relief efforts in New York and New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy last year. CNIMS may help planners for a natural or man-made catastrophic disaster, like a hurricane, according to Hann.

“CNIMS could be used in the planning for hurricane support, especially as information is gained for landfall,” Hann wrote in an email response to questions. “CNIMS would provide information on where people would go.”

In short, CNIMS provides a simulation system that can allow federal agencies – like JTF-CS – to make more accurate plans that help save lives and respond more efficiently by playing out various scenarios before an event occurs.

Ultimately, better plans can equate to a more efficient response and more lives saved following a catastrophe by “supporting the making of the right decision at the right time,” said Hann.

At least one JTF-CS planning expert agrees: “The integration of critical components of the decision making process with the unique operational environment posed by CBRN and DSCA (Defense Support to Civil Authorities) missions will allow the staff to better understand the requirements of the mission,” said Harold “Richie” Richardson, one of JTF-CS’ geographic information systems program managers.

“CNIMS could help provide critical situational awareness for the commander,” said Richardson.

So far, CNIMS has been used to assist several military commands conduct studies, including U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Medical Command, and the Alabama National Guard. In these studies, the system was to provide estimations on the impact of social behavior, including support to federal response planners for pandemic influenza as well as Department of Homeland Security studies on critical infrastructure protection, such as response for hurricanes and other natural and human-initiated crises.

A demonstration is scheduled in April on the next development phase of CNIMS.

DTRA’s brief on CNIMS is one of several recent collaborative efforts between JTF-CS and other key federal, state and local response agencies. Most recently, JTF-CS hosted a three-day table top exercise with more than 100 leaders from federal, military and other response organizations to “share knowledge and insight” and “enhance coordination” across agencies.

• Date Taken: 03.07.2013
• Date Posted: 03.07.2013 09:36
• Story ID: 103054
• Location: FORT EUSTIS, VA, US